WTF is going on with the cost of flying

[garlinger]

On 18/10/2023 at 06:13, BIGFREE1 said:

I live in California. I checked round trip flights from SFO to BKK in April/May 2023 and there weren't that many available and the prices were between 4-4.5k USD. I choose to go to Colombia instead. Round trip there was only 1100 USD at the time.

Recently I found the same trip from SFO to BKK for just over 2K USD with a 1.5 hour layover in HKG. The trip to Colombia (SFO to MDE) also came down a bit to between 800-900 USD, depending on the length of layover.

I think more airlines are coming on-line (post COVID) and also bringing more of their planes back into service each month. While this lowers individual ticket prices, in general, it increases the airlines overall margin of profit.

I know it's not the topic but how was your Colombia trip? 

Did you feel insecure ?, I am planning to give a chance to Colombia for 5-6 days but everyone says it's extremely dangerous and girls will drug you kind of things.

 

Also for Europeans Istanbul to BKK flights are quite cheap right now they are less than 500 USD most of the time. Feel sad for Americans, I don't know why but the prices are quite high if you flew from america.

[Whalley]

On 31/12/2023 at 14:40, Thomaz73 said:

For me it's a deal breaker. For others it isn't. Simple. 

A work mate packs only mini liquor bottles of his favourite drink in the 1 litre plastic bag that’s allowed in his carry-on.  
 

He orders mixers during the flight and discreetly add his own alcohol.  He tells me he has never had issue doing this for many years now.

[momo5]

1 hour ago, Whalley said:

A work mate packs only mini liquor bottles of his favourite drink in the 1 litre plastic bag that’s allowed in his carry-on.  
 

He orders mixers during the flight and discreetly add his own alcohol.  He tells me he has never had issue doing this for many years now.

Except that it’s a federal offense on US-operated airlines or those operating in US airspace, that can result in tens of thousands of dollars in fines; though the only ones you hear about are those behaving as drunken luddites and causing commotion.  

I suspect being discrete and behaving oneself would not garner any attention. 

[Thomaz73]

1 hour ago, Whalley said:

A work mate packs only mini liquor bottles of his favourite drink in the 1 litre plastic bag that’s allowed in his carry-on.  
 

He orders mixers during the flight and discreetly add his own alcohol.  He tells me he has never had issue doing this for many years now.

Has he done that on a Saudi flight? Certainly wouldn't try that. 

[speedtoy]

On 08/09/2023 at 18:26, stan jonathen said:

In my 20 plus trips from Canada to BKK I have never ever paid more then $1,200 return, now a return ticket starts at 1,700, plus a $ 100 service charge to get a aisle seat each direction, and a 14 layover in LA, or if I go via Vancouver it is a 15 hr layover in Seoul on the way home, and that is $2,300 return.

It costs more to be an airline?  Rough guess..

Labor costs are WAY up as pre covid contracts meet current century cost of living reality, and not all airlines have yet completed their FA contracts..last written in 2018.   


Fuel is up, planes cost money to maintain (more labor costs going up here too)...

The service charge is on you..it was optional.

[momo5]

31 minutes ago, speedtoy said:

It costs more to be an airline?  Rough guess..

Labor costs are WAY up as pre covid contracts meet current century cost of living reality, and not all airlines have yet completed their FA contracts..last written in 2018.   


Fuel is up, planes cost money to maintain (more labor costs going up here too)...

The service charge is on you..it was optional.

Don’t quite understand why some think prices should stay the same over many years; perhaps their income has been flat … 

[ctp2018]

My guess is that when “revenge travel“ subsides, prices will drop some. It’s not all supply/demand, but part of it is.

[Whalley]

55 minutes ago, Thomaz73 said:

Has he done that on a Saudi flight? Certainly wouldn't try that. 

I doubt that he has ever been on a Saudi flight.

[Bonkabit]

2 hours ago, Whalley said:

A work mate packs only mini liquor bottles of his favourite drink in the 1 litre plastic bag that’s allowed in his carry-on.  He orders mixers during the flight and discreetly add his own alcohol.  He tells me he has never had issue doing this for many years now.

As I noted previously:

Royal Brunei Airlines do not serve any alcohol on their flights. I have flown Melbourne-Brunei-Bangkok return.

The cabin staff turn a blind eye to modest and discreet addition of a slug of duty-free to the soft drinks they serve.

[speedtoy]

28 minutes ago, ctp2018 said:

My guess is that when “revenge travel“ subsides, prices will drop some. It’s not all supply/demand, but part of it is.

I dont think it will.  "work" travel is not entirely intertwined with vacation travel...they are no longer separate events...and it's filling up seats every day, and month now.

 

[Whalley]

4 hours ago, ctp2018 said:

My guess is that when “revenge travel“ subsides, prices will drop some. It’s not all supply/demand, but part of it is.

A return to low airfares can never happen with interest rates what they are now.

Labour rates have risen significantly post Covid but that pales in comparison to the increased cost to finance the equipment.

When borrowed money was almost zero percent it was no big deal to finance a $300-$400 million dollar wide body aircraft.  Those days are not likely to ever return.

.

 

[speedtoy]

13 hours ago, Whalley said:

increased cost to finance the equipment.

This is a problem 5+yrs from now, not today.   Airlines are getting planes as fast as they can be built today from contracts settled a LONG time ago..

And then again, sometimes NOT.  in just October SWA bought an ADDITIONAL 108 additional Boeing 737 MAX jets on top of the ~400 that were on order...I dont think interest rates are in the way of "how to grow my business" really.

These are generational problems to solve, you can't pause for that..it's just a cost.  AND you cant NOT get in line for what you need, and let someone else take the allocation from you.

Business jets market..ya..that's in trouble right now, but it's not someone looking out over the next 20yrs in how they need to run their business.

[par47]

I dont think new aircraft prices are the cause. There are many perfectly good aircraft in mothballs right now that can be leased for little outlay.

My personal view is that prices were getting unsustainably low and airlines used covid as an excuse to reset at a higher level. Thats all.

I've had an idea... lets all partner up and rent some planes that fly only to Thailand and call it Air Monger and have hostesess that do extras. We'll make a fortune

[speedtoy]

17 minutes ago, par47 said:

I dont think new aircraft prices are the cause. There are many perfectly good aircraft in mothballs right now that can be leased for little outlay.

My personal view is that prices were getting unsustainably low and airlines used covid as an excuse to reset at a higher level. Thats all.

I've had an idea... lets all partner up and rent some planes that fly only to Thailand and call it Air Monger and have hostesess that do extras. We'll make a fortune

Nah..load levels have changed..there is no "business day" and "holiday day" segregation anymore in flying patterns...or on/off season loading levels.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-airlines-thrown-curveball-consumer-habits-change-post-pandemic-2023-05-10/

Everything is full, all the time.  For me..non-rev travel is painfully hard to anticipate, than pre-covid.  There were ALWAYS good and bad days.  Now you have "Very Maybe, and bad days". This is why you hear a LOT more about airline crew coming on a plane and displacing paying passengers..there's just not the room for 'must fly' employees that need to get to another airport to fly another plane like there used to be.

Some airlines are just WAITING for their new planes that are being delivered many many months late.

Mothballed aircraft..reasons between older/inefficient, and lacking crew numbers to use them ENOUGH to make them viable (There is quite a cost in bringing a plane out of the parking lot to use again).

China has all but dissapeared from air travel..even still.  And that's put a lot of pressure on the longer haul flights to longer flights from anywhere, to where people ARE going.  (Austrailia for example).  The cheap(er) trips through the hubs in China are not very useful to Western travelers anymore.

And..air schedules are usually planned out a year in advance..so..shifting aircraft/crew/resources takes time as needs change.  China for example, could LIGHT UP tomorrow, but still be maaaany months between Western airlines rework scheduled to feed the hubs and stop that fed people to/from China.

There is crew relief in sight..most Majors have cut hiring to 50% of what it was post pandemic, but that is still 2-3x higher than it was pre pandemic...and the real stress in the system crew wise, is with the contract carriers getting United/American/Delta/etc in and out of the smaller airport...all of their staff that could fog a mirror and weren't complete assholes...are being hired by the majors as fast as they can get em.


 

[BIGFREE1]

On 01/01/2024 at 14:18, garlinger said:

I know it's not the topic but how was your Colombia trip? 

Did you feel insecure ?, I am planning to give a chance to Colombia for 5-6 days but everyone says it's extremely dangerous and girls will drug you kind of things.

 

Also for Europeans Istanbul to BKK flights are quite cheap right now they are less than 500 USD most of the time. Feel sad for Americans, I don't know why but the prices are quite high if you flew from america.