Thai Public Health Minister reportedly not keen on easing of Covid restrictions, especially legally reopening nightlife and bar industry

[The Pattaya News]

The Pattaya News
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Bangkok, Thailand-   Recent statements from the Public Health Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul seem to contradict statements made by the head of the Department of Disease Control earlier this week about easing Covid-19 restrictions even as cases rise but hospitalizations and serious cases remain very low. According to statements made by Mr. […]

Thai Public Health Minister reportedly not keen on easing of Covid restrictions, especially legally reopening nightlife and bar industry
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[Gonetothedogs]

*sigh*

[Zeb]

is this the same guy who referred to "dirty falangs' before ?

[Barhop]

1 hour ago, Zeb said:

is this the same guy who referred to "dirty falangs' before ?

Same same...

[Roadglide]

You gotta remember this guys job is "public health"  Bangkok and Pattaya may have some hospitals that are up to western standards, but the majority of Thailand is still a second world country, and he does not want hospitals overflowing and having to turn away patients.  Quite a few hospitals in New York, Florida, Texas, and California came close to turning away patients a few months ago, and we have had service members working in hospitals to keep them up and running.  Thailand does not have the hospital capacity.

This is also why China is so freaked out about trying to keep a lid on Covid, as even the mild version if it ran wild like in Europe and the west would cause high numbers of deaths and possibly cause political revolution in that country. 

[timbota]

In the short term, I'll take no steps forward and no steps back.  I think it is a minor miracle we avoided another shutdown when omicron came to town.

[rog555]

2 hours ago, RomaBob said:

 in Thailand it is the same but the hospital business model needs customers and insurance companies to pay up for unnecessary quarantines and 'treatment'.  

 

Anecodatal evidence: I know quite a few bar girls in pattaya who have been in hospitels recently.  

They say they are given 26 pills to take each day......

They are not paying for this personally.   But as you suggest money is flowing to those who provide the quarantine services.

Falangs will be paying, or their insurance will.

[Leo_Bia]

8 minutes ago, rog555 said:

Anecodatal evidence: I know quite a few bar girls in pattaya who have been in hospitels recently.  

They say they are given 26 pills to take each day......

They are not paying for this personally.   But as you suggest money is flowing to those who provide the quarantine services.

Falangs will be paying, or their insurance will.

Correct on the pills.

But I know several girls who have been put up in a hospitel (Brighton Grand) no one is paying as it was covered by the Government because the hospitals were full.

[Roadglide]

1 hour ago, Leo_Bia said:

 

But I know several girls who have been put up in a hospitel (Brighton Grand) no one is paying as it was covered by the Government because the hospitals were full.

I think we should all remember that Thailand is not a first world or western country.  The medical system like the rest of the country is not up to first world or western standards, similar to China if they had to deal with the high death numbers and overwhelmed medical systems like we did in America they would have been faced with a much worse situation, not only the sick and dead...but what I think is much more important for these types of governments and that is the social unrest that would cause them to fall.

 

[RomaBob]

2 hours ago, rog555 said:

Anecodatal evidence: I know quite a few bar girls in pattaya who have been in hospitels recently.  

They say they are given 26 pills to take each day......

They are not paying for this personally.   But as you suggest money is flowing to those who provide the quarantine services.

Falangs will be paying, or their insurance will.

I was given Favipiravir, 9 tablets twice a day for the first two days then one or two twice a day for a further 5 days, it's an anti-viral, being asymptomatic they had to justify the quarantine I suppose.

[Zeb]

Above comments noted etc, however it is also true that Health Authorities have publicly resisted almost ever move to ease restrictions since the pandemic started and such moves have been reported openly in the media.

Think about that and where Thailand and its people would be if the 'advice' in respect to easing some restrictions over time etc had been taken.

The latest situation - more of the same?

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Zeb

[ufsq]

Thai Covid numbers have been dubious at best for the last month since Omicron seeded. 

As you saw in Australia, Denmark, the UK etc.  the ability to appropriately test a large enough cross section of the population to detect the virus evaporated as soon as omicron took hold.  NSW in Australia had maybe five days above 1% positivity for the duration of pandemic and then in mid december it exploded to 30%. About 1.2 million official cases but the true number is something like 4-5 million. 

Thailand confirmed its first community transmission back in late December but it had likely seeded much earlier than that through international arrivals from Europe. There is no effective mass-testing regime to speak of so most cases come from international arrivals and other scenarios where mandatory testing. Most people who get covid test themselves with an antigen test and don't notify the authorities in fear of possibly going to hospitel or hospital.  Even if it isn't costing them money, it's likely to cost them income for a week.  With community transmission since december at some point, the true numbers in Thailand are well north of 100,000 cases per day and maybe much higher. 

 

Look at the stats

 5-20k genuine hospitalizations (45,000 technically but how many are there out of necessity vs stupid surveillance protocol?) 

500 in ICU

100 on vent

Even if we assume hospitalization rates are going to be marginally higher than western countries, these numbers still indicate somewhere between 500,000 and 1,000,000 active cases. 

Deaths are probably being undercounted as well due to 65% of deaths in Thailand occurring outside a managed medical facility  and cause of death often being left to the police or the local phu yai ban. So this means A) that the deaths are attributed to cardiac arrest or something else that is arbitrary and B) people are not getting the medical intervention they need thus possibly keeping the ICU & VENT stats lower than they otherwise might be if they had a chance to get to a properly equipped hospital.    My wife's cousin, 35 and not of ill health,  died of a "heart attack" last month. They did not examine his body - he basically got cremated the next day.  I'm not saying it's covid but I'm highlighting just how randomly cause of death is attributed here in Thailand. 

So my theory is that Thailand's cases have peaked or are close to peaking. And that the Thai gov is actively massaging the statistics and allowing  a "peak" in cases to occur at about 15-20,000 before announcing that the pandemic is receding.  Coincidentally, the Phillippines had a very similar phenomenon.  It was on a downward trajectory and BANG it went from 2,000 odd casses a day to 30,000 and peaked within 2 weeks?  Omicron is quick but it's not that quick.

So maybe when Thailand as officially "peaked" the Gov will have sufficient face to roll back the restrictions and maybe move back to day 1 and 3 antigen tests. 

Obviously what I wrote is highly opinionated and I'll just clear the air by saying that I'm absolute PRO-Vaccine,  Anti-Lockdown and I don't think Covid in any of its current entities poses an existential threat to a vaccinated population. 

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by ufsq

[JamesFerris]

18 minutes ago, ufsq said:

That's why pretty much all of Scandinavia,  not generally known for its irrational decision making

Wait, isn't Sweden part of "Scandinavia" ?  They botched their response to covid19 so badly that they were a veritable laughingstock on the world stage - if we were so cruel as to laugh at excessive deaths due to incompetence.  

As much as I want Pattaya open, public health measures must prevail.  As always, the floggings will continue until morale improves.