Crisis

[qerra22]

Alternative energy sources are, I think,

and there is that direction which will deduce the world from crisis.

The epoch of oil and gas monopolies will end.

[farang1]

You may be right, but we are many years away from alternative energy sources. In the meantime, we are stuck with oil.

[pokland]

i belive all this global warming and stuff has been blown up alot.

crisis? what will actually happen? will the world go under? i dont think so.

oil and gas will eventually run empty, but it will take some time and by that time i believe the world will have its alternetive energy.

[chuckrivera]

OK, and...?

[careski]

κρισισ Greek word.....crisis

 

just a word.....problems have resolutions; but when I hear "crisis", I feel like.....somebody want me to swallow pills....

[MintyCock]

Oil and gas monopolies wont end.

 

These companies didn't grow to become the giants they are by being stupid. Most of them have invested in renewables but the trend is that they are divesting at the moment as it is not commercially viable. The truth is that renewables will not sufficiently meet global energy demands for a long time and until that time oil is what is and will be used.

 

Only thing that will happen is that the price of oil will creep up until it reaches a point where by alternative sources of energy or unconventional sources (oil sands) become more attractive as a commercial commodity.

[thaibutch]

Totally agree. It's all about keeping Oil as the main source of energy to line peoples pockets. There are many alternatives out there but until governments REALLY want then to work, we're stuck with oil and gas.

[prak]

Totally agree. It's all about keeping Oil as the main source of energy to line peoples pockets. There are many alternatives out there but until governments REALLY want then to work, we're stuck with oil and gas.

Really? Then please share with me which alternative energy source is just as good as oil but is being kept down by "the man". If you have a good answer, I will have a profitable new business to start.

[Marauder]

Just a couple of observations from one who has been a part of the Peak Oil crowd for a few years.

There are no substitutes for oil in industry nor in food production (also gas for fertilizer) or the healthcare industry. It is true that

ethanol/biodiesel can be used, but they are not substitutes. Most people don't realize that scale is the true problem.

If we cut our energy usage by 90% across the board, we might be able to get by on renewables if we scale them up a hundredfold or

so within the next decade.

To give an example. If all the available land in the UK was used to grow Rapeseed for biodiesel, and i mean all the land. No roads, towns

or anything, you would have just enough to run all the trucks and buses in the UK. Not the cars. Not the motorcycles. No industry. Just trucks and buses.

Now, think if we could make biodiesel from trees, shrubs, bushes etc. Imagine the ecological disaster as we burn the last of our forests in our cars.

We are also most likely at an oil production plateau now, which will last a few years before the downturn in supply will become apparent.

This will spell the end of economic growth as we know it, and with it the end of living in places which are totally dependant on importing energy & food (think

Las Vegas as a good example)

We have simply grown too large for the energy output of our planet. The solution is obvious, we need to be less people. This will play out in this century.

If you are interested in knowing more about this, i suggest checking out a few sites :

 

www.theoildrum.com

http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ (this is a scary site, be warned. When i first read this, i had a reality adjustment which lasted a few weeks:)

http://peakoil.com/

http://energybulletin.net/

 

For those who can read norwegian :

 

www.oljekrisa.no

 

Also, i recommend some authors :

 

Jared Diamond

Richard Heinberg

Dmitry Orlov

William Catton

 

If you read their works, you will have a good understanding of how societies deal with complexity and how we are likely to revert to a lower

level of complexity as affordable oil runs out.

 

Don't listen to the mainstream media with their industry cheerleaders. Read, get informed, and decide for yourself.

This literally changed how i view the world, and the decisions i've made in my life. I have not regretted it. It is always better

to be informed than ignorant.

 

Peace:)

[Marauder]

I would also highly recommend seeing the tutorial at

 

http://www.chrismartenson.com/

 

for those of you who don't know or understand how money is created and how debt works.

[BSJ]

Don't stress to much. The earth has been hit by giant meteors, had ice ages, been twisted and turned and it's still here.

 

What I think is the major problem is over population. There are too many people now who don't get enough grub. Not my fault, or yours, but it is a fact.

 

Am I supposed to go without because they were born into poverty? Should I help support them? My answer is NO! If they can't see the way to a better future is with a lower regional/global population I sure as hell won't help em. And it's generally the same countries in trouble year in and year out.

[Alex the Hedonist]

WIND POWER BABY...for electric generation, invest in the component manufacturers and the new grid folks as well for transmission.

 

NATURAL GAS...transitional fuel for commercial fleet applications...cheap, easy and in abundance...every truck and train should run on it.

 

HYBRYID PETRO/BATTERY-ELECTRIC...for passenger cars, 90% should be this within 10 years, legislate it baby! I love my prius!!!

 

FORGET NUKE, cept for aircraft carriers and submarines!

 

my 2 baht.

 

but, that doesnt mean i believe for one minute that we wont be running on petroleum in my life time...cuz we dont have the balls to commit to alternatives...wont be cost effective til they are all mass produced.

[Marauder]

The problem with alternatives which are available today are generally twofold. One, they are all dependent on an industry run on cheap oil, and two,

they all have much lower EROI (Energy Return On Investment) than oil.

For a Windmill to be feasible, it doesn't really matter how much the nominal cost is in money. What matters for society is how much energy is used

to produce it, and how much it returns. A Windmill, to be renewable, would have to be made 100% using renewable energy. At the same time, the energy

produced by the Windmill would have to be enough to a) produce a new Windmill before the end of its lifetime and b) have a surplus which can be used for work.

Think of the mining industry, the smelting and production of metals, building it, transporting it, maintaining it, building and maintaining the distribution network.

All this have to be done with renewables.

Let me be the first to tell you that todays windmills are energy sinks. They don't even break even over a 30 year lifetime.

This also applies to things like solar panels.

Natural gas has a lot of problems, of which distribution is probably the biggest, and energy content vs. volume the second biggest. Besides, we will also at some point reach Peak Gas, which will be much quicker if we start running all our cars with it.

Battery powered cars also have a lot of problems, one of which is the metals used in the batteries are very rare. There are lots of promising research on this though, so with

time they might prove viable beyond the gimmick they are today (remember, there are 800million vehicles in the world). However, they are far from replacing diesel trucks

and farm machinery, so don't hold your breath:)

[flighty]

In Britain in a recent cold snap wind power was able to contribute just .4% to the national grid. 'Tho there is a lot more potential for tidal power in the UK. Also Professor James Lovelock, proponent of the Gaia concept has a new book out and reckons we're past the point of no return for global warming. And finally, the British Optimum Population Trust reckons we need a population of only about 30,000,000 to have a sustainable future.

- Now back to the debate about ping pong balls in go gos...

[gunman1876]

There was a program set in place by the Carter Admin back in the late 70's to develope alt fuels and energy sources. The big CO's came in got the oil price back down so the alt fuels would not be profitable. This took the preasure of of them until China and India start the industrial developement and competed for that same oil. The fact is in an the moderen world the health of an economy is tied dirrectly to the cost of energy.

[Marauder]

The fact is that our economies are totally dependent on growth in energy supply. If you were to look at economic growth and energy growth since

the industrial revolution, you would see that the graphs practically overlap. The bottom line is that we can't change CO2 levels without stopping and

reversing energy usage (no matter what the media is telling you, they are often talking about pipe dreams, things that don't scale or which are

totally dependent on cheap fossil fuels). If we were to do this, we would have to voluntarily enter a constant depression, where our economies would

have to contract year after year until we reach sustainability. This is not compatible with either our economic or political system.

Just look at Kyoto. Lots of smiles and handshakes. The result? A 3% yearly increase in CO2 emissions.

We are probably looking at a 4C increase within this century, since we will need to reduce our carbon footprints by 90% or so before 2050 to make an

impact. If we reach 4C, we are likely to be past the tipping point to a 6C increase.

I would like to point out that the last time this happened to the earth (5-6C warmer than today), was 55 million years ago. The sea level was then 80meters

higher than today. Here is a cheery look at what the world would be like at 4C warmer than today:

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9ZzZquaXrR8/SaxM...FourDegrees.jpg

 

It doesn't look so bad for us in northern Europe or Canada. That is, until you realize that all the people living in areas which are now barren are going

to be coming our way. This map also assumes just a few meters higher sea level. Nobody knows how high it's going to get, because we don't understand

the complexity of the natural systems and cycles. We only have historic data to look at, and that is not promising.

 

Enough doom and gloom for now, tune in for more bad news next time:)