The future of Pattaya...

[Strike]

...the place will be over run with in 5 years of Chinese males looking for partners as the One Child policy starts to show the results of the male dominated birth rates during the past 20 years...

 

I seriously doubt that, considering that most Pattaya BG's are darker skinned Isaan girls which will not appeal to high brow Asians.

 

In 5 years...

I believe that Russian will be the third language in Pattaya replacing German. Perhaps, Russian might even surpass English, but unlikely.

 

Seeking a cheaper alternative, the BKK Japs will increase their presence in Patts.

 

In 10 years...

After the oil prices retreat due to overproduction from ANWR, Florida Gulf Coast, Brazil Offshore, Argentina, Iraq, Canadian oil sands and oil shale, the Russian economy will suffer, causing several Russians to retreat to LOS to live as expat cheap charlies.

[Red Wiggler]

Tides will change the cities. Pattaya seems to have been settling down in some ways over the past 5 years, but it's still very much alive. I would say this can be expected for years to come.

[Burglefloogah]

I can't imagine what will happen if the dollar gets much weaker and airfares/oil prices continue to climb.

 

I've watched a United ticket from the east coast of the U.S. go from $1200 to $1800 in recent weeks.

 

Just some statistics from personal experience:

direct flight Tel-Aviv --- Bangkok

fall 2 years ago - $1200

fall year ago - $1500

this fall - $2500 (!!)

 

Also read somewhere Thai Airways canceled direct flight New York-Bangkok and now is trying to sell their A340 planes cause it doesn't pay off economically.

Edited August 25, 2008 by Burglefloogah

[MickyBangBang]

I don't see any changes in the next 5 to 10 years. There will always be thousands of poor farm girls from Isan looking for an easier life and thousands of falang looking for paradise. And the money that the Thai government make from sex tourism is guaranteed to secure Pattaya's future.

[sebastianz]

i just found this thread and i am very interested in this topic, as i am someone who will not be able to make it to pattaya probably for many years. but i desperately want to get there at some point in my life. some of what i read here is encouraging and some is pretty scary.

 

question: can someone point to a resource that says something about where the different political groups in thailand stand on the sex tourism industry. i know that on paper they probably all oppose it vehemently. does someone have a sense of where they really stand?

[easton]

I do not believe things will change too much in the short term. The whole world economy is slowing down and Thailand needs to keep money flowing into the Kingdom no matter where it goes. Thailand simply cannot afford the loss of revenue if it were to snuff out all the beer bars/gogos and government officials know this. My gut tells me there is not going to be an explosion of 5 star hotels in Pattaya either because of the ongoing political crisis and the ramifications from this (ie: fewer investment dollars). Who wants to invest in a country that cannot govern itself?

 

Long term (10+ years) its hard to say due to so many factors. Will airfare be affordable? Will China and India have larger middle classes who can afford to take holidays? Will the dollar be worth anything? Will the King have passed? Will Thailand still be a democracy? Only time will tell...................

[kgk]

I have been coming to Pattaya once a year for about 8 years now. I absolutely love it. That 3 wks (this year 4 weeks) in Jan or Feb when it is cold and snowing in Canada is the highlight of my year. I golf, drink, flirt, party, meet ladies, daily massages, eat great food, lose a few pounds, swim and get a tan.

 

If this were to end or change to a point where it is not enjoyable I dont know what I would do

 

Perhaps looking at the changes in the last 5 years will shed some light on the next 5 yrs.

 

1. Air fare. Recently we have seen a huge increase with more to come. Taking last year and the next 2 years I expect double to triple will be cost. This is going to hurt tourism big time.

 

2. hotels. The ones I price and stay at are definitely increasing faster than my income. I attribute it to large bus tours from China and many more Russians. I dont remember seeing a Russian 5 yrs ago.

 

3. Bar Fines. 200 bht in a beer bar is now 300 up to 500. 300 in a gogo in now 500/600 up to 1000 in some places at certain times.

 

4. Money for the lady. Years ago it was quite different. The lady waited for you to offer in the morning and showed real appreciation. There was a geniune "up to you" attitude with regard to amount. Now I hear many demanding 1500 ST and 2000 - 3000 LT before they are willing to leave the bar. Most dont seem interested in multiple days, in fact they want to get back to bar and get a second bar fine if they can in the same night.

 

5. LDOP. More now. 2 week millionaires seem to be on the increase over the past few years.

 

6. Drug issues and crime in general. My opinion is there is more crime and more violent crime in Pattaya than before. Drug arrests seem to be much more prevalent. The best kept vacation secret is now out there and more young turks come to play. I suspect this is why drug issues are on the rise as most of the 45 to 60 crowd really have little interest in drugs.

 

 

So costs of airfare, hotels and ladies are shooting way up along with crime and drugs. While the ladies attitudes spiral downward. A lot more younger males as well as Chinese and Russians.

 

While in some ways Pattaya seems unchanged but in others it has changed significantly, specially the innocence and attitudes but to me it is still the best place on earth for a vacation, at least for now. So each year I go with the attitude that this may be the last so I better enjoy every minute.

[salty]

This is the last paragraph of a readers submission on the stickman site by Chiang Mai Kelly (Incountry #14 in the green star submissions section). It strikes me as a clear-eyed view of the future.

 

So kids, here’s the news. Your tattoos are going to look really silly when you are 60. Your wife will have taken you to the cleaners and your kids won’t be talking to you. The younger generation will have invented a form of music you detest and Viagra will be outlawed as causing some kind of terrible disease. But Pattaya will still be there and the young maidens from Isaan will await your pleasure. When you get there they will be singing songs that were popular when you were 20.

 

One thing that will change is the nationalities of the visitors according to currency values and the relative wealth of various countries.