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... CIVIL UNREST - Thailand Drops to DEFCON 3 (Nov 10, 2013)


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Brutox's mostly arbitrary and doubtfully scientific Thai Annual Civil Unrest Threat Scale:


DEFCON 5 - Business as usual

DEFCON 4 - Demonstrators from one side in the streets

DEFCON 3 - Demonstrators from both sides in the streets ... potential for confrontations

DEFCON 2 - Demonstrators confronting each other in the streets ... somewhat controlled by police/military

DEFCON 1 - Widespread confrontations ... out of control ... major police/military deployments





... in my last report on November 5, I moved Thailand's situation from DEFCON 5 to DEFCON 4 ... I moved Thailand down one level today because of two meaningful developments (see articles below).


... in the first article ... significant numbers (in the "10's of thousands") of pro-Thaksin Reds (bused in largely from their northeast stronghold) were mobilized to counter anti-Thaksin demonstrators ... they assembled in Muang Thong Thani (suburban BKK), safely away from anti-Thaksin demonstrators situated in central BKK venues.


... still, the history here is that the confronting sides eventually conduct tribal displays, confronting each other in a show of numbers.


... in the second article ... anti-Thaksin protestors announced today that they are escalating and continuing protests, seeking to oust pro-Thaksin government ... new groups are joining the anti-Thaksin demonstrators ... many university student bodies ... hundreds of university rectors ... lawyers organizations ... business organizations ... they appear intent on a final show-down on convicted fugitive Thaksin's efforts for grant himself amnesty.


... no street confrontations yet, but everyone locally is watching to see if/when either will make their way into their opponent's claimed protest venues.


... the displays are playing out in BKK, with smaller demonstrations widely conducted in the provincial capitals.


... visitors to Thailand would not be threatened in their normal daily activities ... but, visitors should be reading daily where protests by all groups are being conducted ... avoiding those locations, which are widely publicized and are potential flash points, is easy.


... restaurants, stores, businesses, transportation, tourist venues, communications, media are all operating unhampered.


... I'd still come to Thailand, with no concerns ... but ... while here, be aware of what is developing, as the potential for street confrontations is quite dynamic and the momentum appears moving toward increased agitation between the two tribes ... stay abreast of daily media reports and embassy travel warnings.


[... incidentally, this whole situation is additionally charged by the expected announcement tomorrow by the International Court of Justice of their decision on the disputed ownership of the historic Preah Vihear Temple and the surrounding area along the Thai-Cambodia border ...  the Thaksin government announced that it will accede to whatever the court decides ... if the ruling favors Cambodia, the anti-Thaksin demonstrators are certain to unleash an ugly torrent of nationalistic fervor, sure to raise tempers to even higher levels ... watch for it].







Red shirts rally in support of govt

The Nation, November 10, 2013


Tens of thousands of red-shirt people rallied at Muang Thong Thani Sunday evening in support of the government.


After they rallied at Ratchaprasong in the morning, the red shirts move to demonstrate at the purpose ground of Muang Thong Thani.

They said the rally was held to protect democracy. The rally was held after many groups of people came out on streets to protest against the amnesty bill.







Groups escalate push to oust government


Bangkok Post, 10 Nov 2013


Three anti-government groups have decided to escalate their protest aimed at ousting Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, House Speaker Somsak Kiatsuranont and Senate Speaker Nikom Wairatpanich.


The intensified protest action was announced despite four coalition parties on Saturday agreeing not to push on with the controversial amnesty bill if the Senate votes to reject it on Monday.


In a joint statement, the Anti-Thaksin Coalition _ comprising civic groups in all 77 provinces, the People's Democratic Force to Overthrow Thaksinism and the Dhamma Army _ said the protest has been heightened from yesterday.


The aim is to expel the government and the heads of the parliament because they have proved to serve the interests of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the coalition said.


According to the statement, the Yingluck Shinawatra administration is "the government of Thaksin, by Thaksin and for Thaksin" and has brought on national crises on many fronts.


The government has faced a number of corruption scandals in its policy administration, the coalition alleged.

In the statement, the alliance said it will push for "major reforms by the people's council".


The three groups are calling on the public to join their protest at Phan Fa Bridge on Ratchadamnoen Avenue.

The latest move comes after red-shirt supporters announced they would counter the anti-amnesty protests in Bangkok by staging mass pro-government demonstrations in several provinces next week.


Four coalition parties pledged yesterday to let the contentious blanket amnesty bill drop if it is rejected by the Senate tomorrow.


The leaders of the Pheu Thai, Chartthaipattana, Chart Pattana and Phalang Chon parties yesterday signed an agreement not to reaffirm the draft bill if it is returned to the House of Representatives.


The Senate is scheduled to meet tomorrow to debate the bill and it is widely expected to vote down the draft.


Pheu Thai's Charupong Ruangsuwan, Chartthaipattana's Thira Wongsamut, Chart Pattana's Wannarat Charnnukul, and Phalang Chon's Sonthaya Khunploem signed the agreement after making the announcement.


The move follows a suggestion by rectors and executives of universities that the coalition partners should make a public commitment to kill the draft bill.


Hunter S. Thompson Insert.jpg

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Meanwhile in Pattaya Business as usual ???


I never get involved in politics.


Waste of time, same same religion ( western ).

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thailand is ALWAYS business as usual even when the tanks are on the streets


It is the land of the coup


Every time there is a coup or major protest you just sip your beer/whiskey/latte at the bar/restaurant/coffeeshop/gogo bar and enjoy the show

Better to be daring and cool, than timid and uncool! Life's journey is not about arriving at your gravesite in a well preserved condition, but rather dropping into it in a long sideways skid, totally worn out, and shouting "Holy Shit...What a ride" - Indian Larry

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