HIV and related data in Thailand - data driven thread

[hormone]

On 23/01/2026 at 05:58, Cooldehla1 said:

Because thailand is a developing country, i would say the risk factor is than not 0,004% per sexual act but somewhat higher, to 0,028%

1- 0,04% not 0,004% -- I think both of you guys'  fingers slipped on the 0.... ! 
2- Yes TH for sure (regarding healthcare situation for the masses...) is a "low income country" so yes it falls in the higher risk of transmission per act.  That's why I put in bold on my previous post.  Agree with you.  It's something that seems hard for most people to understand, sadly, because it is quite multi-factorial.  

@navinor : yeah TH public health talks a lot about HIV, but it does not fix many of the factors (socio-economic-healthcare) which are thought to be the root cause of this increased transmissibility.   Basically: if a girl fucks bb multiple times a day with a different partner each time, she is more likely to : have vaginal abrasions, contract an STI, be exposed to an infected partner--especially if there is a young promiscuous thai boy in the picture who just contracted it himeself.  Maybe at 1st the per exposure risk is 0,04%, but after you add the STI and the abrasions, the highly infective partner... 

[hormone]

On 23/01/2026 at 01:46, navinor said:

I spend one week in heaven, on PREP, with 4 pops a day. 

Lets for ease of calculation assume that I am able to avoid girls in late and early stage HIV and that I only practice "insertive vaginal" sex.

This would entail; 28 instances of said practice (4*7) 
If all of those were with a girl that were HIV+ and with an average viral load that would give each instance a risk of 0,0004% of an adverse outcome (beiing infected). This will give me a cumulative risk of 0,0112% of at least one adverse outcome, and as we know - one is enough...

Simply put: I would have a 0,0112% chance of getting HIV after plain bareback vanilla sex with 28 HIV+ girls

Please correct my math if I am wrong!
Also please do not take this as a sign that unprotected sex is risk free regarding HIV, even on PREP, but as the author intended lets keep this fact based.

1- Too many zeros:  the risk should read 0,04% -- hence your final calculation would be 1,12%.   

2- FYI for those who wish to know how to calculate the "cumulative risk" (or chance) with fixed "winning / infectious" rate (I want to explain because here the 1,12 looks like the sum of 28x 0,04, but it's not exactly the same) 

Probabilities of cumulative exposures, where P = probability, safe = not infected and infect = infected. 
Granted Pinfect for 1 exposure = 0,04% = 0,0004
Calculate P(safe) for 1 exposure = 0,9996 
Now if we want to see over 28 exposures:  P(safe 28 times) we need to raise the single Psafe to the power of the number of exposures = 0,9889 (rounded off) 
Then P(infect) once over the 28 contacts = 1- P(safe 28 times) = 0,01114 -- put in % this is 1,11% chance of being infected. 
If you use 0,08% transmission chance per contact, then your cumulative risk over 28 fucks will be 2%.  

3- I know you are not doing this for real, but I want to point out that: assuming we can detect/ avoid an HIV+ person is... ouch.  It's pretty easy for medical personnel to suspect someone has advanced AIDS.  For the rest...  And remember the 1st stage of HIV, acute infection, can be either asymptomatic or minimally... or present like a nice case of flu... 

4- You're on PREP, taken appropriately: so your chances go down close to 0 
 

Edited January 24 by hormone

[navinor]

1 hour ago, hormone said:

On 22/01/2026 at 19:46, navinor said:

I spend one week in heaven, on PREP, with 4 pops a day. 

Lets for ease of calculation assume that I am able to avoid girls in late and early stage HIV and that I only practice "insertive vaginal" sex.

This would entail; 28 instances of said practice (4*7) 
If all of those were with a girl that were HIV+ and with an average viral load that would give each instance a risk of 0,0004% of an adverse outcome (beiing infected). This will give me a cumulative risk of 0,0112% of at least one adverse outcome, and as we know - one is enough...

Simply put: I would have a 0,0112% chance of getting HIV after plain bareback vanilla sex with 28 HIV+ girls

Please correct my math if I am wrong!
Also please do not take this as a sign that unprotected sex is risk free regarding HIV, even on PREP, but as the author intended lets keep this fact based.

Expand  

1- Too many zeros:  the risk should read 0,04% -- hence your final calculation would be 1,12%. 

This was included prep, 0,04 was directly from the study. After an added reduction of 99% i believe 0,004 is correct.

[readyforthai2026]

Long story short, just get on prep if you're HIV negative. Side-effects of prep for me haven't been bad overall and I only take it a few times a year while mongering. The peace of mind is incredibly freeing. 

Weighing the odds is good and all but doesn't actually matter if you contract it. HIV doesn't care about the odds. You either contract it or you don't and you have no way to guarantee you won't without prep. 

[Mr.Lahey]

On 21/05/2025 at 16:26, lovermand66 said:

As i read this, clients of sexworkers are down -65%…
that is good news.
Maybe because many sexworkers are taking pills because they know that they are infected 

alot of the clients are taking prep now too. the statistics show that its probably the clients who take most of the prep because they have dropped 65% vs the sexworkers 14%. its always been my opinion that most of the ladys get sick from their boyfriends and not the clients. the data supports this too because the non-paying partners of sexworkers boyfriends infection rate has significantly by 85%.

Edited April 9 by Mr.Lahey