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Long Haul Business Class for under $2K (Long Post)


Little Evil

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I am going to close my Amex Platinum in the next week as the annual fee is coming at the end of the month. I just used the May $15 Uber credit for a nice delivered lunch via Uber Eats, so I have milked the card as much as I can. My dilemma is who to transfer my left over 10K MR points to? Out of all of their partners, I only have some existing (15k)  miles with Delta. So I was thinking of moving the MR's to Delta, but it's been a few years since I've tried to redeem anything through SkyTeam. Any suggestions on best partner to dump the 10K MR's to?

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41 minutes ago, bouncewithme said:

I am going to close my Amex Platinum in the next week as the annual fee is coming at the end of the month. I just used the May $15 Uber credit for a nice delivered lunch via Uber Eats, so I have milked the card as much as I can. My dilemma is who to transfer my left over 10K MR points to? Out of all of their partners, I only have some existing (15k)  miles with Delta. So I was thinking of moving the MR's to Delta, but it's been a few years since I've tried to redeem anything through SkyTeam. Any suggestions on best partner to dump the 10K MR's to?

Have you considered a "no annual fee" AMEX to keep your MR alive?

I think restrictions on transfer are pretty heavy, but it keeps them alive if you decide to move to another MR card later (like a Gold or a different Platinum).

At least that's my plan....hope like Hell it works, since I have about 125k MR!  LOL

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58 minutes ago, bouncewithme said:

I am going to close my Amex Platinum in the next week as the annual fee is coming at the end of the month. I just used the May $15 Uber credit for a nice delivered lunch via Uber Eats, so I have milked the card as much as I can. My dilemma is who to transfer my left over 10K MR points to? Out of all of their partners, I only have some existing (15k)  miles with Delta. So I was thinking of moving the MR's to Delta, but it's been a few years since I've tried to redeem anything through SkyTeam. Any suggestions on best partner to dump the 10K MR's to?

10k is though, in that it's enough to make you care about them, but not exactly enough to do anything cool with them directly. Consolidation with your Delta points might make the most sense. Although, I think Jetblue and possibly even BA have award savers for sub 500 mile trips that would fall in the 7500 range (I think). Worst comes to worst, you could liquidate into a $100 gift card as a last resort. I tend to only look that way for miles that might otherwise end up stranded with no future earnings. One other interesting option that I haven't explored yet is donation. Not sure what types of return you get there, but I know Jetblue does offer a donation program.

 

Although, I think I'd be more inclined to try to no-fee card downgrade as L2P said. Worst comes to worst, you could close the account later, but no skin off your back in the mean time. 

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JetBlue is an interesting call - they are like Southwest in that the points required for a flight are based on the available fare, so not too hard to find a one way JetBlue award at 10,000 points (although, if I'm reading the chart right, the 10,000 MR would transfer as 8,000 JetBlue miles).  

I haven't had much luck with it, but I have read that BA miles can be used to book domestic AA flights in the U.S. at rates lower than AA.

JetBlue and BA also have their own co-branded cards that can ramp up those miles.  JetBlue is through Barclays and BA is through Chase.  

Singapore is a 1:1 partner, and they also partner with Chase UR, but I'd hate to park miles in a foreign carrier on a speculative basis.

PG is a transfer partner, but the rate is TERRIBLE -- 10,000 MR = 3,333 SWP.  To me, that is not a viable option.

As for hotels, the 10,000 would net you 15,000 Hilton, but their devaluation a few years ago really gutted their award chart.  Now they have a "pay with cash and points" system, but I think it pretty much sucks.  Looking at Pattaya, 15,000 HHonors points would only take 2000 baht off of the cost of a room night.  Sounds pretty crappy to me.

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On 5/5/2017 at 2:55 PM, Luv2Phuket said:

Have you considered a "no annual fee" AMEX to keep your MR alive?

I think restrictions on transfer are pretty heavy, but it keeps them alive if you decide to move to another MR card later (like a Gold or a different Platinum).

At least that's my plan....hope like Hell it works, since I have about 125k MR!  LOL

Do you know if you switch the Platinum to a no annual fee card if there is a hard credit pull? I called and got the run around from their customer service, saying "we don't know". When I did that with Chase on the Sapphire Preferred there was not hard pull and it was an easy swap in the system. Amex makes it much more complicated it appears.

Also, since it is a charge card and does not have an available credit limit, I am thinking it should have no impact in my overall available credit and as such limited to no impact on my credit report. Does anyone have experience closing a Platinum card and knowing what if any credit it you had from it?

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15 hours ago, bouncewithme said:

Do you know if you switch the Platinum to a no annual fee card if there is a hard credit pull? I called and got the run around from their customer service, saying "we don't know". When I did that with Chase on the Sapphire Preferred there was not hard pull and it was an easy swap in the system. Amex makes it much more complicated it appears.

Also, since it is a charge card and does not have an available credit limit, I am thinking it should have no impact in my overall available credit and as such limited to no impact on my credit report. Does anyone have experience closing a Platinum card and knowing what if any credit it you had from it?

 

Not sure if this is still the case, but this website is reporting that you can't downgrade a charge card to a credit card on Amex, and that the only option to downgrade a plat or gold charge is to go green for $95/year annual fee. This....I did not know, and if true, just ruined my long term plan for the plat. Kind of makes sense in context to your question about how available credit would work from a charge card to a credit card (it doesn't, apparently). Now, there's still the option to just get an everyday, but that would be a hard pull on what they would consider a new application. 

 

https://www.rewardexpert.com/blog/how-and-when-to-downgrade-your-amex-chase-or-citi-credit-card/

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Little Evil said:

 

Not sure if this is still the case, but this website is reporting that you can't downgrade a charge card to a credit card on Amex, and that the only option to downgrade a plat or gold charge is to go green for $95/year annual fee. This....I did not know, and if true, just ruined my long term plan for the plat. Kind of makes sense in context to your question about how available credit would work from a charge card to a credit card (it doesn't, apparently). Now, there's still the option to just get an everyday, but that would be a hard pull on what they would consider a new application. 

 

https://www.rewardexpert.com/blog/how-and-when-to-downgrade-your-amex-chase-or-citi-credit-card/

 

 

Good info, Thanks! I will be cancelling mine today.

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2 hours ago, Little Evil said:

 

Not sure if this is still the case, but this website is reporting that you can't downgrade a charge card to a credit card on Amex, and that the only option to downgrade a plat or gold charge is to go green for $95/year annual fee. This....I did not know, and if true, just ruined my long term plan for the plat. Kind of makes sense in context to your question about how available credit would work from a charge card to a credit card (it doesn't, apparently). Now, there's still the option to just get an everyday, but that would be a hard pull on what they would consider a new application. 

 

https://www.rewardexpert.com/blog/how-and-when-to-downgrade-your-amex-chase-or-citi-credit-card/

 

 

One thing that I have NOT seen mentioned is whether a BUSINESS AMEX is sufficient to keep your MR points alive.  I opened a no fee "Blue for Business" AMEX a few months ago in preparation for jettisoning my Platinum.  The fact that business cards weren't mentioned in this blog (or any that I have seen) caused me some concern, so I just called AMEX and asked.  I was told -- not that it will do me any good if the guy is wrong! -- that my Blue for Business will keep my MR alive and kicking.

I think that I got hit with another hard pull when I opened it, but I also got a small sign up bonus (like 10,000 MR).

The key tip that these blogs provided me was the big Citi restriction -- I have a Prestige account that I plan to keep open for at least another year, but, even if I had another TY program card to transfer them to, the points in that account will expire 60 days after I close that account.  That's a big freakin' deal, as I currently have about 80,000 TY points sitting there.  It also tells me which program (MR, TY, UR) I need to move points from first!  LOL

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On 5/4/2017 at 5:04 PM, Luv2Phuket said:

Decent news for U.S.-residents that either have an actual small business OR are "creative" (it is pretty easy to claim business operations sufficient to get a biz card):  Chase has bumped the bonus on its new Ink Business Preferred card to 100,000 UR points (after $5k spend in 3 months) through this Saturday.

http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2017/05/04/chase-ink-business-preferred-100000-point-signup-bonus-offer-saturday/

It's an increase from the usual 80,000 points, so effectively a 25% increase.  Factroing in the minimum spend, that's at least 105,000 UR points, which transfer to BA, United, Singapore and Korean, as well as IHG, Hyatt and Marriott.  This card also has 1.25 cents per point for travel spent through their bookign service (not sure how that works, as I almost always transfer to airlines).

I think I'm still barred by the 5/24 rule, but went by my branch to submit it this afternoon.  I actually NEED a new business card, as I am taking over another organization at the end of June, so it will help me organize expenses.  I was going to wait, but the "limited time" of this offer pushed up my application date.

I think this is an in-branch offer only.  The rep in my branch knew exactly what I was talking about (it's a Small Business Week promotion they are running).

Good luck to anyone else who takes a shot at this, and I'll report back on how mine goes.  No instant approval (uh oh!), but she said they're backed up because of the promotion.

 - L2P

 

....well....'twas not to be -- got my 5/24 rejection letter in the mail today!  I think a couple of cards have dropped off, but I was VERY active in April of last year, so this was not unexpected.  I was hoping doing on in-branch application may have helped, but it didn't.

In-branch Chase Rep had called me a few times before I submitted that app about being my "business rep," so the next time I see her, I will be sure to tell her that I was bounced under 5/24; that it wasn't a surprise, but was a disappointment nonetheless; and that I likely will be looking to B of A (likely Alaska Air) for a card for the new business with which I will be working.

 

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19 hours ago, Luv2Phuket said:

 

....well....'twas not to be -- got my 5/24 rejection letter in the mail today!  I think a couple of cards have dropped off, but I was VERY active in April of last year, so this was not unexpected.  I was hoping doing on in-branch application may have helped, but it didn't.

In-branch Chase Rep had called me a few times before I submitted that app about being my "business rep," so the next time I see her, I will be sure to tell her that I was bounced under 5/24; that it wasn't a surprise, but was a disappointment nonetheless; and that I likely will be looking to B of A (likely Alaska Air) for a card for the new business with which I will be working.

 

 

That sucks.  Sorry to hear.  I wish I had any type of personal business to apply for that 100k. I'm only 2/24 so far, so I'm pretty sure I'd get it, but I don't have anything reasonably close to a business to support the application. Maybe I can pass off being a gogo inspector.

 

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4 hours ago, Little Evil said:

 

That sucks.  Sorry to hear.  I wish I had any type of personal business to apply for that 100k. I'm only 2/24 so far, so I'm pretty sure I'd get it, but I don't have anything reasonably close to a business to support the application. Maybe I can pass off being a gogo inspector.

 

I'm in a similar situation. Applying for a business card would require fraud tbh. I shoot for the big sign-up bonuses. I'm currently 3/24 but those happen to be CSR, CSP and Mileage Plus Explorer which are all the best offers from Chase. It's particularly frustrating since whenever I log into my Mileage Plus account, there's a targeted 70K offer for the Explorer card, but the fine print says you're ineligible if your last sign-up bonus for the card was less than two years ago.

For AA miles, both Citi and Barclay require two years since the account was closed and I'm about a year and a half since I last closed those two. So, they're my options for this fall. Amex/Delta won't work because I've already gone through all of those cards and they are once in a lifetime sign-up bonuses. I'd like to get something now, but can't think of anything worth the credit pull at the moment. Anyone have any suggestions?

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15 hours ago, bgtp said:

I'm in a similar situation. Applying for a business card would require fraud tbh. I shoot for the big sign-up bonuses. I'm currently 3/24 but those happen to be CSR, CSP and Mileage Plus Explorer which are all the best offers from Chase. It's particularly frustrating since whenever I log into my Mileage Plus account, there's a targeted 70K offer for the Explorer card, but the fine print says you're ineligible if your last sign-up bonus for the card was less than two years ago.

For AA miles, both Citi and Barclay require two years since the account was closed and I'm about a year and a half since I last closed those two. So, they're my options for this fall. Amex/Delta won't work because I've already gone through all of those cards and they are once in a lifetime sign-up bonuses. I'd like to get something now, but can't think of anything worth the credit pull at the moment. Anyone have any suggestions?

If you're only 3/24, you could look at the Freedom Unlimited. As long as you have a UR earning card, you can translate the Freedom Unlimited spend into UR's. This is a neat option because you can expand the multiplier categories on your spend, essentially deferring all prior 1X purchases from the CSR/CSP cards to the Freedom for 1.5X points. The downside being no "bang for the buck" in terns of sign up bonus for the hard pull. All you get is a $150 statement credit for a $500 initial spend. 

 

I also recall a bit of hype around the release of the US Bank Altitude Reserve card, although, I also heard that you have to be an existing US Bank customer to apply for one. That might be an interesting option if you fall into that category. 50k signup and 3X points on travel, and even better, 3X points on tap & pay, theoretically making the majority of purchases 3X. No transfer partners yet though, so the points are used for booking through their travel portal like a Barclays Luxury Card. I'm not a huge fan of nontransferable points, so I'm not sure I'd want this card in my quiver. Other than that, sounds like you've run the full spectrum of top tier cards. You could maybe look into smaller card bonuses that you could then grow with your existing cards. Alaska? Korean Air? 

 

Talking about sign-up bonuses.....you guys see that JP Morgan Chase took a 200-300 million dollar haircut from their CSR 100k signup? The trade off will end up being the increased annual fees and vendor charges, but that's one hell of a gamble considering many probably dumped the card after receiving the bonus. 

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LifeMiles on sale again. They post instantly so you can use them right away. As always, ensure availability of your preferred flights before buying.

 

http://viewfromthewing.boardingarea.com/2017/05/08/buy-tons-star-alliance-miles-just-1-47-cents/

If it floats, flies or fucks, RENT IT!!!!! "He who hesitates, masturbates"

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Thought I'd mention when I bought AA miles several weeks back, I used my CSR card and received 3 x on the purchase. Nice added bonus! It's possible for those with Amex Platinum that you'd get 5 x MR on AA miles since AA processes the transaction and not a third party points provider, but I could not find any 100% confirmations on the internet of that, it was inconsistent info and because of that and my annual fee date approaching where I'd be moving away from the card anyway, I elected to use my CSR.

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Looks like Alaska is back with another HUGE mile purchase bonus:  

http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/2017/05/15/buy-alaska-miles-with-biggest-bonus/

It's targeted, so no telling what you will get.  I checked and got the 50% bonus for mile purchases of 50,000-60,000.

Taking this back to the title of this thread, if you get the 50% offer, (as detailed in the blog) that's a max purchase of 60,000 miles with a 30,000 mile bonus for $1,773.75.  Alaska miles allow you to book business class on Cathay for 50,000 miles each way, so you're right on the verge of RT biz class with those miles.  If you purchased 10,000 more at the minimal 20% bonus level -- which I would not necessarily recommend -- it would cost another $295.63, so that's RT business class on Cathay for $2,069.38.  

It's 60,000 Alaska miles to book business class on JAL or Korean each way in biz to SE Asia (but Korean requires RT booking).

Another option is to do 2 transactions of 50,000 miles each, netting 25,000 bonus miles each time, for $1,478.13 for each purchase.  That's a total of 150,000 miles for $2,956.26....but that nets you 10,000 more miles than you would need for RT first class on Cathay or JAL.

I'm torn on this one.  It's a GREAT deal, but I already have 210,000 Alaska miles.  Don't know if I can justify dropping almost $1,500 on a speculative purchase when I already have so many Alaska miles sitting there (and I have NO trip to LOS planned).  Then again, topping 280,000 miles would mean I have enough for 2 RT first class trips.....tempting.... 

 

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16 hours ago, Luv2Phuket said:

Looks like Alaska is back with another HUGE mile purchase bonus:  

http://onemileatatime.boardingarea.com/2017/05/15/buy-alaska-miles-with-biggest-bonus/

It's targeted, so no telling what you will get.  I checked and got the 50% bonus for mile purchases of 50,000-60,000.

Taking this back to the title of this thread, if you get the 50% offer, (as detailed in the blog) that's a max purchase of 60,000 miles with a 30,000 mile bonus for $1,773.75.  Alaska miles allow you to book business class on Cathay for 50,000 miles each way, so you're right on the verge of RT biz class with those miles.  If you purchased 10,000 more at the minimal 20% bonus level -- which I would not necessarily recommend -- it would cost another $295.63, so that's RT business class on Cathay for $2,069.38.  

It's 60,000 Alaska miles to book business class on JAL or Korean each way in biz to SE Asia (but Korean requires RT booking).

Another option is to do 2 transactions of 50,000 miles each, netting 25,000 bonus miles each time, for $1,478.13 for each purchase.  That's a total of 150,000 miles for $2,956.26....but that nets you 10,000 more miles than you would need for RT first class on Cathay or JAL.

I'm torn on this one.  It's a GREAT deal, but I already have 210,000 Alaska miles.  Don't know if I can justify dropping almost $1,500 on a speculative purchase when I already have so many Alaska miles sitting there (and I have NO trip to LOS planned).  Then again, topping 280,000 miles would mean I have enough for 2 RT first class trips.....tempting.... 

 

$2k for RT business class isn't bad at all these days. I opened an Alaska FF account a couple months ago from a conversation on this thread suggesting they are the best CX award option at the moment, but I still haven't done anything with it yet. I'm now wishing I hadn't just invested in some AA miles recently. My only reservation about Alaska's program is what you mentioned about Korea Airlines. I was able to book one way with AA. Are you saying it isn't possible with Alaska?  

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2 hours ago, Little Evil said:

$2k for RT business class isn't bad at all these days. I opened an Alaska FF account a couple months ago from a conversation on this thread suggesting they are the best CX award option at the moment, but I still haven't done anything with it yet. I'm now wishing I hadn't just invested in some AA miles recently. My only reservation about Alaska's program is what you mentioned about Korea Airlines. I was able to book one way with AA. Are you saying it isn't possible with Alaska?  

Here is the Alaska award chart for Continental US to Asia:

https://www.alaskaair.com/content/mileage-plan/use-miles/award-charts.aspx?lid=nav%3amileage-charts&INT-_AS_NAV_-prodID%3aMileagePlan

Footnote 9 is more than a little confusing to me:

One-way Korean Air award bookings are charged the same number of miles as round-trip travel. Korean Air flights, when used one-way in combination with Alaska Airlines or another partner airline to create a round-trip itinerary (routing restrictions apply), will be charged half the applicable Korean Air round-trip miles. If any part of a round-trip itinerary is flown on Korean Air, it becomes ineligible for any refund of the unflown portions.

Am I reading that correctly to say you could use Korean for one way and Cathay (or JAL) for the return?

BTW, I may have an excuse to sneak to Thailand in October (although travel would be pretty brutal) and was surprised at how wide open Cathay first is right now for award travel.  

 

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18 hours ago, Luv2Phuket said:

Here is the Alaska award chart for Continental US to Asia:

https://www.alaskaair.com/content/mileage-plan/use-miles/award-charts.aspx?lid=nav%3amileage-charts&INT-_AS_NAV_-prodID%3aMileagePlan

Footnote 9 is more than a little confusing to me:

One-way Korean Air award bookings are charged the same number of miles as round-trip travel. Korean Air flights, when used one-way in combination with Alaska Airlines or another partner airline to create a round-trip itinerary (routing restrictions apply), will be charged half the applicable Korean Air round-trip miles. If any part of a round-trip itinerary is flown on Korean Air, it becomes ineligible for any refund of the unflown portions.

Am I reading that correctly to say you could use Korean for one way and Cathay (or JAL) for the return?

BTW, I may have an excuse to sneak to Thailand in October (although travel would be pretty brutal) and was surprised at how wide open Cathay first is right now for award travel.  

 

That is some of the more confusing redemption language I've read is quite a while!  I've got nothing.  I think I'd need to bring my attorney in on an award booking with those RULES.

I actually made a mistake earlier. That one-way on KE I mentioned was booked directly with KE points from a Chase UR transfer. My memory isn't what it used to be.

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LittleEvil you can apply for a biz card using your SS# as the Tax Id....

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15 minutes ago, navidnavid said:

LittleEvil you can apply for a biz card using your SS# as the Tax Id....

True, but that's mostly because you could potentially be using your SS# as you TIN/EIN as a sole proprietor, DBA or pass through single member LLC. I am technically not doing any of that, so if Chase or Amex ever asked for any further "company" info, I'd be kind of screwed. It does happen too. I just had a business meeting with Amex last week to review our Open cards. They claim it was to see what they could do for me and to make sure I was using the most relevant products, but I think they just wanted a closer look at the operations to confirm the $3m spend/year. 

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Slightly off-topic side note, but today was the FIRST time that I have ever upgraded using miles.  I'm well-versed on how to BOOK flights with miles, but I had never used them to upgrade before.

BRUTAL trip - I was tied up with "work" (more of a hobby) until around 1 a.m., and had a driver picking me up at 4 a.m. for my 7 a.m. departure from JFK.  I knew that I would be running on fumes, so I put in a request to upgrade for $75 and 15,000 miles.  Found out on Saturday that it had cleared.

I don't know if I would do it often, but it was CRUCIAL on this flight given my lack of sleep last night (took about a 20 minute nap) and lie flat seats in AA biz class from JFK-LAX.  Plus, given my Citi & Barclay's cards, I got a 10% rebate, so the mileage was only 13,500 (rebate already credited).

Since this was my first time trying, what kind of luck have you had with upgrading using miles on a long haul flight?

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17 minutes ago, Luv2Phuket said:

Slightly off-topic side note, but today was the FIRST time that I have ever upgraded using miles.  I'm well-versed on how to BOOK flights with miles, but I had never used them to upgrade before.

BRUTAL trip - I was tied up with "work" (more of a hobby) until around 1 a.m., and had a driver picking me up at 4 a.m. for my 7 a.m. departure from JFK.  I knew that I would be running on fumes, so I put in a request to upgrade for $75 and 15,000 miles.  Found out on Saturday that it had cleared.

I don't know if I would do it often, but it was CRUCIAL on this flight given my lack of sleep last night (took about a 20 minute nap) and lie flat seats in AA biz class from JFK-LAX.  Plus, given my Citi & Barclay's cards, I got a 10% rebate, so the mileage was only 13,500 (rebate already credited).

Since this was my first time trying, what kind of luck have you had with upgrading using miles on a long haul flight?

If you were able to upgrade on the AA A321T- Hell yeah the $75 and 15Kmiles were worth it.  IMO that's the best transcon flight on the market.  In reality 15K miles is not steep at all, you will earn those back quick- I have never used miles to upgrade on domestic as with AA i typically get upgraded about 75% of the time as an Exp- Rarely I never get upgraded on Transcon Flights.

Also- Im sure you read this past week, AA upgraded their upgrade policy- So if you have status with AA it will be much more easier for you to upgrade with miles than in the past.  IN the past people where upgraded by time of upgrade request, now its EQDs in a rolling 12 month.  It will hurt some and help some-  Think it will help me, but only time will tell.

 

I do have a few interesting flights in the next week that I will post pics of;   Friday Night- Flying LAX-HKG in AA 77W Biz.  THis will be my 1st time flying on AA 77W Biz as this is their flagship route-Thanks to an SWU that cleared last week.  Believe AA now beats CX-   I like how AA provides Mattress Pad and their catering has come a long way- The last CX J flight I had, it wasnt impressive, the catering stunk and now that I think of it, not sure why they do not offer mattress pad...   I am pretty sure that AA 77W biz will outperform CX 77W Biz..  either way, looking forward to my foot massage with a glass of Moet Rose at the CX Pier. :) 

The following Saturday- Flying BKK to DOH on QR A380 J  and then DOHA to LAX on 777LR J..   I will post- as these 3 flights will be new experiences for me

I have a 7 hour layover in DOHA- I arrive at 11pm, and applied for their free visa- So I plan to Uber it Downtown and walk the city before I head back to DOHA ...  I will also post pics 

 

Also- a long shot- but if anyone is at LAX on Friday night flying on OW, let me know and can be my guest in the 1st class lounges.

Edited by get0ffdanutzz
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9 minutes ago, get0ffdanutzz said:

If you were able to upgrade on the AA A321T- Hell yeah the $75 and 15Kmiles were worth it.  IMO that's the best transcon flight on the market.  In reality 15K miles is not steep at all, you will earn those back quick- I have never used miles to upgrade on domestic as with AA i typically get upgraded about 75% of the time as an Exp- Rarely I never get upgraded on Transcon Flights.

Also- Im sure you read this past week, AA upgraded their upgrade policy- So if you have status with AA it will be much more easier for you to upgrade with miles than in the past.  IN the past people where upgraded by time of upgrade request, now its EQDs in a rolling 12 month.  It will hurt some and help some-  Think it will help me, but only time will tell.

 

That was my equipment.  Very comfortable, roomy seat (had 7A). As some others have complained, the plugs being about 175 degrees over my left shoulder was really inconvenient.  This was especially true when I was trying to plug in headphones in a dark cabin!  555

I am Platinum (going to struggle to re-qualify this year, but should hit Gold), so the odds of me scoring an upgrade without the miles/fee were slim to none.

With the new upgrade policy, I think the higher your status (and spend), the easier it will be to upgrade.  If I read the policy right -- and I probably didn't 555 -- you would have better odds of getting an upgrade with 500 mile certs as an EXP then I would even if I was doing it with miles/fee.

I have a friend who is trying to get Concierge Key. No mile/spend requirement for it -- apparently, they evaluate on a very limited case-by-case basis.  If he gets that, he's first in line for upgrades every time (I think even when he's flying on miles)

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