Western economic meltdown...

[Jonathonmac]

I would be interested to know the views of other forum members regarding how the global recession will affect LOS. Rising unemployment, negative economic growth, public sector cuts and 5% inflation is the order in the UK; the Euro mainland is threatened with monetary meltdown as the Greek Government get ready to default on loans package and in the USA President Obama has had to resort to 1930's Keynesianism in an attempt to kick start the economy. What impact will this have on LOS?...dip in tourism, more difficult export Market, less bhat for the euro or dollar. Globalism means that LOS will be affected....what's your view about how Thailand will be affected by the coming recession in the west?

[Kandinski]

 

.........what's your view about how Thailand will be affected by the coming recession in the west?

 

They will raise the prices, create a few more scams and survive like they have done for last millenium or so. If the the Western economyis going to hell why no follow ....on first class

[Jonathonmac]

I agree that a Thailand has an awesome track record as a survivor, but back in 1997 it's economy took a substantial knock with the devaluation of the bhat (happy days for us tho)...this time around if the pound, euro and dollar take a tumble, what will it do to tourism numbers and what impact onFarangs living here?...I know I'm Mr Gloom and Doom lol.

[gonesamui]

If or when europe and usa will have an economic meltdown, asia will not be far behind us. It's difficult to predict what the concequences will be except for everybody having less money to spend. As it is now things will not get better the first 12 to 24 months. Things will get alot worse, but they won't be able to keep me away from LOS. I would go to great lengths to still be able to do my regular trips to LOS.

[Jonathonmac]

It's all about priorities buddy and I agree with you that whilst tourism might take a short term knock, what LOS has to offer will appeal forever.

[jocky king]

Pattaya is probably the best town to cure the depressing men affecting from Global recessions... When the men feeling depressed and down , where else would he go, To Pattaya where all BGs will give him the biggest cure with a smile.... I see the Bargirls as a consultants and a fuck doll....

[Jonathonmac]

Interesting contribution Jocky King perhaps your suggestion might be actively considered by the European Central Bank policymakers when they meet next week...although you may have to explain the acronym BG for them lol.

[Harry Brown]

Interesting contribution Jocky King perhaps your suggestion might be actively considered by the European Central Bank policymakers when they meet next week...although you may have to explain the acronym BG for them lol.

 

You want to keep this place quiet from policymakers, bankers,brokers and suchlike look what they did to the economy, they would fuck paradise up in two seconds

 

 

 

[Jonathonmac]

Harry without a doubt the financial and political bigwigs have little to be proud of, however I do wonder whether a short spell I'm Patts might assist them in getting the important things in life better prioritised....like where oes the best soapies lol....

Edited September 23, 2011 by Jonathonmac

[stud muffin1234]

Maybe the Thai Govt might try to Weaken the Baht...

[QuotaMan]

They will raise the prices, create a few more scams and survive like they have done for last millenium or so. If the the Western economyis going to hell why no follow ....on first class

 

It's more like, they'll continue to thrive on the existing scams.

 

10 years from now people will STILL be bitching about the jet ski scam, gem scam in BKK, tailors, etc. There's one born every minute.

[Buddy Edgewood]

The 'West' went through a recession just a few years ago, how did that affect LOS? With a 'double-dip' recession, what's the predictions for LOS? During the recession a few years ago, I believe that LOS saw a big dip in tourism (granted the riots didn't help either), but otherwise survived just fine. Currencies vs the baht fared pretty poorly and most have not recovered.

 

If indeed there is a double-dip recession, I think we'll see our currencies impacted a bit more, but the good news is that cheap pussy will still be there in LOS, albeit a little bit more expensive than we would like, but still a bargain compared to what we would pay in our home countries.

[Harry Brown]

Well it looks like we are into another stock market meltdown, the Aussie dollar has dropped against the USD and there is talk of china being affected which will slow our economy down.

 

the only commodity that I can see which is recession proof is Thai pussy I might put all my money into that.

[Jonathonmac]

Good point Harry although I would be surprised to find that particular investment tip highlited in the Financial Times!

[FOH]

Well it looks like we are into another stock market meltdown, the Aussie dollar has dropped against the USD and there is talk of china being affected which will slow our economy down.

 

the only commodity that I can see which is recession proof is Thai pussy I might put all my money into that.

 

 

I will definitely be putting some more money into Thai pussy over the next year or two and also investing quite heavily in Thai beer too.

[jocky king]

Couple years ago I lost €30,000 (1,230.000 bahts) in shares, that company had gone busted therefore my shares in the company is in tattererd .. Should have invested in Thai Pussy instead...That about 820 LT or 1640 ST ... Damn Damn :Hair_Out1:

[felix the cat]

Maybe the Thai Govt might try to Weaken the Baht...

 

That's bloody hilarious! Not a chance in hell m8!

[philkrenshaw]

Western tourists will be replaced by Indians.

The Indian economy won't suffer as much because India still has a work ethic. As does Thailand.

[gerry53]

Western tourists will be replaced by Indians.

The Indian economy won't suffer as much because India still has a work ethic. As does Thailand.

 

 

Work ethic my arse. Pay anyone bare subsistence wages and no benefits and you get a poorly motivated worker unless you crack a heavy whip. I think you saying the Thai workers have good work ethics will bring snickers here.

[stud muffin1234]

Kittiratt pushes government economic policy

Commerce Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said on Wednesday he will ask the Bank of Thailand to put on hold its plan to raise the repurchase rate to curb inflation.

Published: 21/09/2011 at 03:24 PM

Newspaper section: topstories

 

Mr Kittiratt, the deputy prime minister for economic affairs, said a delay in an increase in the key policy rate would allow the government to implement its promised policies and to accomplish the planned targets.

 

He was delivering a speech on “Mobilising the economy under the Yingluck government” to a seminar on “Two trillion baht income from tourism: A challenge of the new government”.

 

Mr Kittiratt called on politicians, academics and individuals who have been criticising the government’s policies, particularly the rice mortgage scheme, the new daily minimum wage and the tax reductions to lower cost of living, to instead cooperate with the government in its efforts to work for the country.

 

“They can serve as advisers to the government and jointly layout a working plan to help develop and boost the country’s economy,” he said.

 

 

Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong (Photo REUTERS)

Mr Kittiratt was confident that on Jan 1, 2012, the private sector would voluntarily comply with the government’s 300 baht daily minimum wage policy. This was because the government would cut the corporate income tax to 23 per cent next year and to 20 per cent in 2013, from the current 30 per cent, to help offset the increased labour cost.

 

Even though corporate income tax would go down to 20 per cent, it would still be higher than 17 to 18 per cent tax other countries in the region, the minister said.

 

“I want to announce that corporate tax will be further cut in 2014, on the condition that there must be cooperation from the private sector in increasing the daily minimum wage and income distribution, in order that the government can expand its taxation base to gain additional revenue,” he said.

 

On the tourism front, he said the government had set the revenue target for tourism related industries for 2015 at two trillion baht. It was expected that tourism income for this year would be about 700 billion baht, up 27 per cent on last year.

 

The tourism sector continued to grow despite being hard hit by the floods, southern unrest and the debt crisis in Europe, he added.

 

Meanwhile, the Fiscal Policy Research Institute Foundation has adjusted its gross domestic product growth projection for 2011 to four per cent, down from its previous forecast of 4.5 per cent.

 

FPRI director Kanit Saengsuphan said today the revision was a result of the severe impact of the continuing global economic crisis.

 

His institute maintained its growth forecast for 2012 at 4.5 per cent, but the figure could be again revised if the adverse effects of the economic crises in the US and Europe are more critical than expected.

 

The FPRI director said the global economic crisis was a cause for concern because no one could predict what the situation over the next 12 months would be, but it certainly would be worse than the past 12 months.

 

The debt crisis in Europe had now expanded to Italy and become a major risk factor. Moreover, it was not predictable whether the US$400 billion stimulus measures proposed by the US President Obama would get approval from the US congress, he said.

 

Mr Kanit said the global debt crisis would not have much impact on Thailand’s exports, but it would have an affect on the money sector. The debt problem in Europe would weaken the euro currency and the US dollar might be strengthened as a result.

 

But any weakening of the US dollar would strengthen the value of the Thai baht, and this would cause problems for Thailand.

 

It was the central bank's duty to closely watch the situation and to keep the baht value at suitable levels, he added.

Edited September 24, 2011 by stud muffin1234

[stud muffin1234]

That's bloody hilarious! Not a chance in hell m8!

 

 

REALLY AMIGO.....!!!!!

 

 

 

Monday , September 5 , 2011

Must read: Huge upcomming devaluation of the thai baht

Posted by Seven , Reader : 543 , 16:32:27

Print

 

Huge upcomming devaluation of the thai baht

 

Does anybody remember the financial crisis in Thailand (and south east asia) in 1997? Well, back then only a few members of the inner circle knew what was going to happen to the thai baht. Private bankruptcies, halts of government projects, the list goes on. Note that some families profited by the crisis.

 

However, this time the economic tsunami that is going to hit Thailand is easy to foresee. No insider knowledge is needed this time.

 

And what is the cause of this economic crisis that will hit Thailand in only 4 MONTHS time? It is simply the governments plan to increase the minimum wages by up to 50 - 90%.

 

Now, anybody with just the slightest understanding of economy will know that you can not increase wealth in a country just by raising the minimum wage abruptly. 3 - 5%, yes, but not 50 - 90%. There is no redistribution of wealth in that plan. Where is the money going to come from? The average thai company will not be able to survive such a condition with just a small cut in taxes. The average thai company do not produce a profit large enough to shoulder such an increase in salary.

 

To be fair, some sectors do however, like the hotel sector in inner Bangkok. They will charge you 100 US-dollars for just one nights stay, just about the same as any european country would. The labour cost in Thailand is only about 10% of the cost in the EU so it is easy to see that the owners of these Bangkok hotels are harvesting huge profits. Here you could talk about the owners exploiting the cheap labour.

 

Even the thai government has admitted that raising the minimum wage by 50 - 90% will cause inflation not seen earlier in this country. Goods will become more expensive. That means that the purchasing power of the thai bath will weaken dramatically. Simply put, the thai baht will be worth less.

 

I will repeat: The thai baht will be worth less.

 

So what, no big deal you might think. But yes, it is a big deal, a very big deal. There are 15 families in Thailand that have billions of Baht in their bank accounts. These families will not sit idly by and watch the value of their assets fade away. They will protect their hard earned money. Just like some insiders did during the 1997 economic crisis. They will buy gold or find another way of moving their assets away from the Thai Baht.

 

The Thai bath will not be considered a safe haven. Not by the super-rich thais or the foreigh investors. Investment in-flow will come to a halt. These rich thai families will start dumping the thai Baht and once a few of these families begin dumping the baht the rest will follow. They will have no choise but to protect their assets. Not to mention that they would double their fortune. They will make a lot of money by dumping the thai bath as they did during the 1997 crisis. Once the Thai baht have been devaluated and found a new stable level they will move their assts back to the baht and harvest a nice profit.

 

The worst case scenario could be the total collapse of the Thai Baht

 

It is exactly what happens at the stock market. When some big dealers start to sell off the rest will follow.

 

So on the surface the government is being frindly to the poor but in the real world millions that will lose their jobs and the money we have in our hands will be worth less.

 

The rich will get richer and the poor will become poorer and many will lose their jobs.

 

Why do such a crazy thing? Life is pretty good in thailand. An unemployment rate of 1 - 2% is very low, and people do get by. While the US and the EU have big problems we are doing just fine. Why destroy it?

 

The answer is simple: A rich power-hungry family apparently wants to profit by a devaluation of the Thai Baht. It has worked before, hasn't it? They have done it before and gotten away with it.

[felix the cat]

REALLY AMIGO.....!!!!!

 

 

 

Monday , September 5 , 2011

Must read: Huge upcomming devaluation of the thai baht

Posted by Seven , Reader : 543 , 16:32:27

Print

 

Huge upcomming devaluation of the thai baht

 

Does anybody remember the financial crisis in Thailand (and south east asia) in 1997? Well, back then only a few members of the inner circle knew what was going to happen to the thai baht. Private bankruptcies, halts of government projects, the list goes on. Note that some families profited by the crisis.

 

However, this time the economic tsunami that is going to hit Thailand is easy to foresee. No insider knowledge is needed this time.

 

And what is the cause of this economic crisis that will hit Thailand in only 4 MONTHS time? It is simply the governments plan to increase the minimum wages by up to 50 - 90%.

 

Now, anybody with just the slightest understanding of economy will know that you can not increase wealth in a country just by raising the minimum wage abruptly. 3 - 5%, yes, but not 50 - 90%. There is no redistribution of wealth in that plan. Where is the money going to come from? The average thai company will not be able to survive such a condition with just a small cut in taxes. The average thai company do not produce a profit large enough to shoulder such an increase in salary.

 

To be fair, some sectors do however, like the hotel sector in inner Bangkok. They will charge you 100 US-dollars for just one nights stay, just about the same as any european country would. The labour cost in Thailand is only about 10% of the cost in the EU so it is easy to see that the owners of these Bangkok hotels are harvesting huge profits. Here you could talk about the owners exploiting the cheap labour.

 

Even the thai government has admitted that raising the minimum wage by 50 - 90% will cause inflation not seen earlier in this country. Goods will become more expensive. That means that the purchasing power of the thai bath will weaken dramatically. Simply put, the thai baht will be worth less.

 

I will repeat: The thai baht will be worth less.

 

So what, no big deal you might think. But yes, it is a big deal, a very big deal. There are 15 families in Thailand that have billions of Baht in their bank accounts. These families will not sit idly by and watch the value of their assets fade away. They will protect their hard earned money. Just like some insiders did during the 1997 economic crisis. They will buy gold or find another way of moving their assets away from the Thai Baht.

 

The Thai bath will not be considered a safe haven. Not by the super-rich thais or the foreigh investors. Investment in-flow will come to a halt. These rich thai families will start dumping the thai Baht and once a few of these families begin dumping the baht the rest will follow. They will have no choise but to protect their assets. Not to mention that they would double their fortune. They will make a lot of money by dumping the thai bath as they did during the 1997 crisis. Once the Thai baht have been devaluated and found a new stable level they will move their assts back to the baht and harvest a nice profit.

 

The worst case scenario could be the total collapse of the Thai Baht

 

It is exactly what happens at the stock market. When some big dealers start to sell off the rest will follow.

 

So on the surface the government is being frindly to the poor but in the real world millions that will lose their jobs and the money we have in our hands will be worth less.

 

The rich will get richer and the poor will become poorer and many will lose their jobs.

 

Why do such a crazy thing? Life is pretty good in thailand. An unemployment rate of 1 - 2% is very low, and people do get by. While the US and the EU have big problems we are doing just fine. Why destroy it?

 

The answer is simple: A rich power-hungry family apparently wants to profit by a devaluation of the Thai Baht. It has worked before, hasn't it? They have done it before and gotten away with it.

 

Do you know how many times i've read reports like this m8? Many times AMIGO!

 

You can show me all the stats available but the Thai government will continue buying trillions of their own currency to keep the Baht at a acceptable level....as always.

 

I can tell you right now bro....most Australians are buying cars (Honda,Toyota,Ford) that are all Made in Thailand. Seafood,furniture,white goods & electrical products etc, also from Thailand ..& the list grows everyday.

 

We'll obviously soon see if your information is correct.

[stud muffin1234]

Guess we Will.... Time will Tell....!! but in the first article it states Govt want a 2 Trillion Baht tourism industry and at the Bottom of the article is states the Govt want to Control the Rate for the Baht...

[philkrenshaw]

Work ethic my arse. Pay anyone bare subsistence wages and no benefits and you get a poorly motivated worker unless you crack a heavy whip. I think you saying the Thai workers have good work ethics will bring snickers here.

 

Well, the times I've been there I don't see lots of Thais on the dole or rioting because they can't retire at 50 with full benefits. People in the west wouldn't work at all for subsistance wages; they would expect the government to take care of them. As union workers in western factories price themselves out of business, workers in countries like China, India and Thailand are doing their jobs.

[chris2004]

Western tourists will be replaced by Indians.

The Indian economy won't suffer as much because India still has a work ethic. As does Thailand.

 

Yes they have the work ethic because they know if they don't work they will starve, unlike the west where people now think the Government owes them a living and they won't get out of bed for less than $40,000 a year.