Baht predicted to gain a further 2.1% by end of year

[leadpencil]

Article published today.

 

Thailand: Baht to gain 2.1% by year-end on GDP outlook, Kasikornbank says

 

Thailand's baht will advance 2.1 percent to its strongest level since July 1997 by the end of the year as the outlook for economic growth and borrowing costs boosts fund inflows, Kasikornbank Pcl said.

 

The currency will climb to 30.20 per dollar, according to a research note written this week by Kobsidthi Silpachai, the head of the bank's markets and economics research, and his team. The nation's third-biggest lender by assets had predicted on Aug. 20 that the baht would appreciate to 31.

 

"Investors may think there is a good chance to make money in Thailand because the growth rate is much higher and that puts appreciation pressure on the baht," Kobsidthi said in a telephone interview today. "Interest rates are heading higher in Thailand. If the economy is expanding so fast, chances are that companies on the stock market are doing better."

 

The baht has climbed 8 percent this year, the second-best performance among Asia's most-traded currencies excluding the yen, as the Bank of Thailand has raised its benchmark interest rate two times in 2010. Overseas funds have poured $1.06 billion into the nation since July 23, when the central bank forecast the economy will grow as much as 7.5 percent in 2010, the fastest clip since 1995. Global investors sold $563 million more Thai shares than they bought from Jan. 1 through July 22.

 

Current Account

 

The baht gained 0.2 percent today to 30.83 per dollar as of 11:19 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. If Kasikornbank's prediction proves accurate, the currency will have gained 10 percent this year, which would be its best annual performance since 2006.

 

Government data show Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy had a current-account surplus of $5.42 billion this year through July, compared with $12 billion in the year-earlier period. A surplus in the account, a measure of goods and services payments, indicates that more money is flowing into a country than is being withdrawn.

 

"The growth argument is there, but the main driver of the baht's appreciation is the current-account surplus," Kobsidthi said. "The account will continue to be in surplus and the baht will continue to rise."

 

Source: sfgate.com

 

 

 

Publication date: 9/10/2010

[joltme1313]

ok so what the heck does all that mean???

 

do i get more baht when i exchange money or not?

 

will short times cost more? or will i get more for my money???

[PattayaFanatic]

ok so what the heck does all that mean???

 

do i get more baht when i exchange money or not?

 

will short times cost more? or will i get more for my money???

 

Plan to spend more money for anything you buy in Thailand.Thai girls don't give a fuck what Thai baht cost you to exchange,pussy prices in baht will stay the same.The amount of Baht you get for your dollar or euro will be less.

Edited September 10, 2010 by PattayaFanatic

[Knight101]

Article published today.

 

Thailand: Baht to gain 2.1% by year-end on GDP outlook, Kasikornbank says

 

Thailand's baht will advance 2.1 percent to its strongest level since July 1997 by the end of the year as the outlook for economic growth and borrowing costs boosts fund inflows, Kasikornbank Pcl said.

 

The currency will climb to 30.20 per dollar, according to a research note written this week by Kobsidthi Silpachai, the head of the bank's markets and economics research, and his team. The nation's third-biggest lender by assets had predicted on Aug. 20 that the baht would appreciate to 31.

 

"Investors may think there is a good chance to make money in Thailand because the growth rate is much higher and that puts appreciation pressure on the baht," Kobsidthi said in a telephone interview today. "Interest rates are heading higher in Thailand. If the economy is expanding so fast, chances are that companies on the stock market are doing better."

 

The baht has climbed 8 percent this year, the second-best performance among Asia's most-traded currencies excluding the yen, as the Bank of Thailand has raised its benchmark interest rate two times in 2010. Overseas funds have poured $1.06 billion into the nation since July 23, when the central bank forecast the economy will grow as much as 7.5 percent in 2010, the fastest clip since 1995. Global investors sold $563 million more Thai shares than they bought from Jan. 1 through July 22.

 

Current Account

 

The baht gained 0.2 percent today to 30.83 per dollar as of 11:19 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. If Kasikornbank's prediction proves accurate, the currency will have gained 10 percent this year, which would be its best annual performance since 2006.

 

Government data show Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy had a current-account surplus of $5.42 billion this year through July, compared with $12 billion in the year-earlier period. A surplus in the account, a measure of goods and services payments, indicates that more money is flowing into a country than is being withdrawn.

 

"The growth argument is there, but the main driver of the baht's appreciation is the current-account surplus," Kobsidthi said. "The account will continue to be in surplus and the baht will continue to rise."

 

Source: sfgate.com

 

 

 

Publication date: 9/10/2010

 

 

I do agree that they had huge inflows but they must stabilize their currency with the major currencies like the USD and Euro or else this is just a honeymoon period and then a big crash. They can't appreciate more as they depend hugely on exports. Personally, I just think that this is just a honeymoon period. As far as mongering is concerned and any other form of manual transction one has just to use his brains and do some math. Just offer what you used to offer in USD or Euro by the new rate of exchange.

Edited September 10, 2010 by Knight101

[aum]

You will get less for your money. I was getting 32 baht for each of my dollars in April this year. I am returning next week and it looks like I will be getting about 30.50 for each of my dollars. Basically that means I will need 1050 dollars to get the same amount of baht that used to take 1000 dollars to buy.

[furryman]

 

[ab2010]

getting less baht for your money is not good news

[Reaper_gfx]

personally if the baht keeps gaining strength and the exchange rate takes a hell of a beating nothing to really stop me/other mongers just catching a flight to somewhere else to empty my nuts,

Edited September 10, 2010 by Reaper_gfx

[leadpencil]

I do agree that they had huge inflows but they must stabilize their currency with the major currencies like the USD and Euro or else this is just a honeymoon period and then a big crash. They can't appreciate more as they depend hugely on exports. Personally, I just think that this is just a honeymoon period. As far as mongering is concerned and any other form of manual transction one has just to use his brains and do some math. Just offer what you used to offer in USD or Euro by the new rate of exchange.

 

I agree with you that sooner or later the baht has to end its run of appreciation however I do not think that it is going to happen any time soon.

[joltme1313]

god dammit... cant all this wait another month or so???? let everything go to hell the week after i leave so i can get a decent exchange rate..

 

32 baht to the buck seems fair...

[Craig_ozz]

the problem Thailand will have with too strong an exchange rate is tourism is 10% of Thailands income, and if the baht goes to high, then people will look to other places to holiday, P4P etc

Edited September 11, 2010 by Craig_ozz

[Joseph Kerr]

Hmmmm Scary stuff.

 

I am in mix minds as I do not think I could ever stop going to Thailand

[Al.]

Never trust a so called financial expert or banker you only have to look at whats already happened to know that the banking crisis was caused by banking financial experts.

Al.

[leadpencil]

the problem Thailand will have with too strong an exchange rate is tourism is 10% of Thailands income, and if the baht goes to high, then people will look to other places to holiday, P4P etc

 

Yes, I hope that as soon as it hits 'mainstream' tourism (i.e. holidaymakers to Phuket, Samui etc) then the Thai Government will sit up and take notice.

 

I am in mix minds as I do not think I could ever stop going to Thailand

 

Same same.

 

Never trust a so called financial expert or banker you only have to look at whats already happened to know that the banking crisis was caused by banking financial experts.

 

It's true that no-one knows with any certainty what is going to happen and I am the first one to hope that they are wrong but in this case all the trends at least suggest that their information is sadly correct.

[beeline]

Apparently not all roses for THB:

 

http://www.economist.com/node/17049141?story_id=17049141

[swagman]

Article published today.

 

Thailand: Baht to gain 2.1% by year-end on GDP outlook, Kasikornbank says

 

Thailand's baht will advance 2.1 percent to its strongest level since July 1997 by the end of the year as the outlook for economic growth and borrowing costs boosts fund inflows, Kasikornbank Pcl said.

 

The currency will climb to 30.20 per dollar, according to a research note written this week by Kobsidthi Silpachai, the head of the bank's markets and economics research, and his team. The nation's third-biggest lender by assets had predicted on Aug. 20 that the baht would appreciate to 31.

 

"Investors may think there is a good chance to make money in Thailand because the growth rate is much higher and that puts appreciation pressure on the baht," Kobsidthi said in a telephone interview today. "Interest rates are heading higher in Thailand. If the economy is expanding so fast, chances are that companies on the stock market are doing better."

 

The baht has climbed 8 percent this year, the second-best performance among Asia's most-traded currencies excluding the yen, as the Bank of Thailand has raised its benchmark interest rate two times in 2010. Overseas funds have poured $1.06 billion into the nation since July 23, when the central bank forecast the economy will grow as much as 7.5 percent in 2010, the fastest clip since 1995. Global investors sold $563 million more Thai shares than they bought from Jan. 1 through July 22.

 

Current Account

 

The baht gained 0.2 percent today to 30.83 per dollar as of 11:19 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. If Kasikornbank's prediction proves accurate, the currency will have gained 10 percent this year, which would be its best annual performance since 2006.

 

Government data show Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy had a current-account surplus of $5.42 billion this year through July, compared with $12 billion in the year-earlier period. A surplus in the account, a measure of goods and services payments, indicates that more money is flowing into a country than is being withdrawn.

 

"The growth argument is there, but the main driver of the baht's appreciation is the current-account surplus," Kobsidthi said. "The account will continue to be in surplus and the baht will continue to rise."

 

Source: sfgate.com

 

 

 

Publication date: 9/10/2010

 

They could well be right....but I spent some time looking oround the web at forex predictions & found many quotes (written by 'experts') from 2008/9 predicting a long term & slow... falling of the baht-so who really knows?

 

And if banks had an idea which way things would go- would they want to share it & help others?

[SP1]

It's true that no-one knows with any certainty what is going to happen and I am the first one to hope that they are wrong but in this case all the trends at least suggest that their information is sadly correct.

Too right, my mate has been going to Thai for 10 years now and, as i'm sure a lot on here will know, he talks of 75 baht to GBP only a few years ago, yet now its 45 ish!!

[leadpencil]

Apparently not all roses for THB:

 

http://www.economist.com/node/17049141?story_id=17049141

 

Interesting article. My argument would be that the red shirts have had no real affect on the economy up until now, so why should that change going forwards?

 

They could well be right....but I spent some time looking oround the web at forex predictions & found many quotes (written by 'experts') from 2008/9 predicting a long term & slow... falling of the baht-so who really knows?

 

And if banks had an idea which way things would go- would they want to share it & help others?

 

I don't think anyone really knows. I deal with forex traders and soon woke up to the fact that it is all guess work.

 

Too right, my mate has been going to Thai for 10 years now and, as i'm sure a lot on here will know, he talks of 75 baht to GBP only a few years ago, yet now its 45 ish!!

 

Nice avatar!

[pyrolover]

They'll have to do something about the falling export index soon. I believe they will do the same thing the japanese just did. Although I post this artical in another post, I'll repost it here just to give you an idea of what should happen. The longer they wait, the deeper the drop in the Baht will be. Sure, one has to take into account the Thai logic of BoT Governor Ms Watanagase when it comes to their economy (The get it while the getting is good approach). They may keep the Baht inflated until the exports bottom out and the rest of the Thai economy can no longer hold it up. So, I'll just let you read the artical and you can be the judge.

 

 

Thailand’s private sector, represented by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), urged the Bank of Thailand (BoT) on Friday to respond against the continuing appreciation of the baht, citing reports on its effect on the nations export industry.

 

Bangkok, the 11^th of September 2010: Based on the results of a survey of 39 industrial groups affected by the continued appreciation of the baht, FTI chairman Phayungsak Chartsutipol urged BoT Governor Tarisa Watanagase to intervene on the situation, which risks crippling certain export-orientated industries.

 

Among those most heavily affected, based on the FTI report, include, clothing, textile, ceramic, processed goods and the agricultural industries. Over 40% of the worst affected industries included sawmills, wood treatment factories, air conditioning manufacturers, packaged food processing facilities and auto parts manufacturers (export).

 

Exports, although affected in general, are hardest hit when using locally produced raw materials, with air-conditioning exporters reportedly suffering an estimated 7% drop in sales and the auto parts exporters a staggering 10% decline in the last 12-months.

 

 

Mr. Chartsutipol, as a representative of private industries, asked the Bank of Thailand to intervene on the currency market, helping to bring the baht closer to regional counterparts in order to boost competitiveness and ease the financial burdens on exporters.

 

BoT Governor Ms Watanagase however only last week asserted that no intervention in the currency market was necessary given the bahts movement in line with the top-10 most-actively traded currencies in Asia.

 

Although all Asian currencies have strengthened during the last 12-months amid the U.S and global recession and European debt crisis, the bahts appreciation is second in the region at over 6%. Countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia have gained on Thailand’s export dominance as a result, with the FTI now worried that the appreciating baht will continue to hamper Thai exporters push to compete in key fields such as automotive parts, textiles and finished goods.

 

At the time of the Mr. Chartsutipol’s comments on Friday, the baht was trading at 30.81 to the U.S. dollar, a 13-year high.

Edited September 18, 2010 by pyrolover

[ExpatDave]

 

:Finger:

 

 

And mostly:

 

[Bedman]

personally if the baht keeps gaining strength and the exchange rate takes a hell of a beating nothing to really stop me/other mongers just catching a flight to somewhere else to empty my nuts,

 

I think they may well be aware of your point.

 

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/tourism/197554/tourism-body-plans-overhaul-by-2012-to-compete-with-rivals

 

Tourism body plans overhaul by 2012 to compete with rivals

 

 

 

The Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) will propose a major reform plan by 2012, aiming to increase the industry's competitiveness, which is increasingly threatened by rivals including Malaysia.

 

"We need to completely reform our tourism industry the way we did during the 1986-88 period under the concept of Visit Thailand, which helped increase total international visitors around 20%," said Kongkrit Hirayakit, the TCT chairman for policy and planning.

 

"We have sold the same products for 10 years and focused only on marketing promotions. We have had no tangible projects to develop the industry for years.

 

"Making tourism a national agenda is just an announcement. We won't get anything if we don't have action plans. We're now losing our competitiveness to key rivals like Bali, Malaysia and Singapore because of political instability."

 

Average growth of international tourist arrivals to Thailand has been 6.5%, in line with 6-7% in Southeast Asia.

 

However, this year Malaysia, with just one-third Thailand's population, expects 22 million arrivals _ though many are day-trippers from Singapore _ against 14-15 million for Thailand.

 

Although Thailand earns more tourism revenue than Malaysia, the TCT strongly believes Malaysia will overtake Thailand soon, Mr Kongkrit said.

 

Tourist spending per head per day in Thailand has been between 3,500 and 4,200 baht since 2000.

[allaporta]

Euro suffers a lot for bath increase...last year same period 1000 bath worth almost 20 euro. Today almost 25 euro!!! This october I will spend 20% more than other year. It's a big trouble!

[leadpencil]

They'll have to do something about the falling export index soon. I believe they will do the same thing the japanese just did. Although I post this artical in another post, I'll repost it here just to give you an idea of what should happen. The longer they wait, the deeper the drop in the Baht will be. Sure, one has to take into account the Thai logic of BoT Governor Ms Watanagase when it comes to their economy (The get it while the getting is good approach). They may keep the Baht inflated until the exports bottom out and the rest of the Thai economy can no longer hold it up. So, I'll just let you read the artical and you can be the judge.

 

 

Thailand’s private sector, represented by the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), urged the Bank of Thailand (BoT) on Friday to respond against the continuing appreciation of the baht, citing reports on its effect on the nations export industry.

 

Bangkok, the 11^th of September 2010: Based on the results of a survey of 39 industrial groups affected by the continued appreciation of the baht, FTI chairman Phayungsak Chartsutipol urged BoT Governor Tarisa Watanagase to intervene on the situation, which risks crippling certain export-orientated industries.

 

Among those most heavily affected, based on the FTI report, include, clothing, textile, ceramic, processed goods and the agricultural industries. Over 40% of the worst affected industries included sawmills, wood treatment factories, air conditioning manufacturers, packaged food processing facilities and auto parts manufacturers (export).

 

Exports, although affected in general, are hardest hit when using locally produced raw materials, with air-conditioning exporters reportedly suffering an estimated 7% drop in sales and the auto parts exporters a staggering 10% decline in the last 12-months.

 

 

Mr. Chartsutipol, as a representative of private industries, asked the Bank of Thailand to intervene on the currency market, helping to bring the baht closer to regional counterparts in order to boost competitiveness and ease the financial burdens on exporters.

 

BoT Governor Ms Watanagase however only last week asserted that no intervention in the currency market was necessary given the bahts movement in line with the top-10 most-actively traded currencies in Asia.

 

Although all Asian currencies have strengthened during the last 12-months amid the U.S and global recession and European debt crisis, the bahts appreciation is second in the region at over 6%. Countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia have gained on Thailand’s export dominance as a result, with the FTI now worried that the appreciating baht will continue to hamper Thai exporters push to compete in key fields such as automotive parts, textiles and finished goods.

 

At the time of the Mr. Chartsutipol’s comments on Friday, the baht was trading at 30.81 to the U.S. dollar, a 13-year high.

 

Interesting article.

 

I have just started a new thread with a very similar article. Hopefully the 'export pain' might put some pressure on the Government to act.

[pattayaNL]

Euro is getting stronger these days, and will compensate for the high Thai baht(if your are european)

 

If baht drops a bit, then we cant complain...

[miles stewart]

i am really sorry to say this but,

 

some of us who live here are making from this,i know its not nice to say but people who live here are making a killing from the low exchange rate,its not just me but others are doing the same.

 

my mate bought his condo when it was 73 baht to the £ sold it last week when its 47 baht to the £.His 5,000.000 baht then £68,000 is now worth a £107,000 as he said its not a bad return,hes lived rent free for 5 years and got a massive profit.

 

he HAS now gOt his money back and still haS enough to live rent free for years,i just sold my car for £2000 more than i paid for it because of the difference in exchange rateS.

 

it really dose hurt people who dont live here and i feel sorry for those guys but those of us that bought early are making money and raking it in,dont flame me for it,its a sad world at the moment.nobody wants to invest in the £ when UK interest rates are so low,save money in the UK but pay more for it here,you have to look at the big picture,the money you save on your mortgage in the UK each year etc,more to spend here even thou its a lower rate.

 

as they say its swings and rounabouts.