BANGKOK: --Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva announced Monday night on TV that he will hold the next election on November 14 if if his roadmap to solve the political problems is not interrupted.

 

He said the road map has five elements as following:

 

1) All parties concerned must join forces to uphold the monarchy.

 

2) The government will carry out national reform to do away with injustice in the economic and olitical structures.

 

As part of the process, the government will provide good social welfare, education, health etc, as well as other things to people suffering from other plights.

 

3) The government will ensure that the media will function as a constructive tool.

 

4) The government will set up an independent committee to investigate the deaths and injuries in clashes between troops, police and protesters on April 10, at Silom and on Vibhavadi Road.

 

5) The government will take actions to study the public feelings of injustice regarding to political system, especially after what happened over last few years, and try to solve the problems.

Cheers mate.

 

Intersting stuff.

 

I guess its got the potential for both side to save face.

 

I can't see the reds taking the bait though.

At the moment its an unelected government and any election would see the reds sweep to power. So thats why they want an election tomorrow.

 

Delaying the election until november, and widespread 'reforms', could both be seen as way of reducing the chance the reds will sweep to power in any election.

And of course its not a gurantee of an election. Only if the roadmap is followed, and its the government who get to say if its been followed.

 

My interpretation would be they government are trying to buy as much time. Then use it to undermine the reds, their support and the way the elections work, in any way they can get away with.

If the reds agree then protest some fiddling on the governments part, then the gov can delay the elections further.

 

I hope I'm wrong and look like a fool.

But I think there will be more trouble..

Edited May 3, 201016 yr by hazze

Isn't politics all about smoke and mirrors???

I think this would work in the west to some extent but Thailand???

Don't count your chickens and as we all know Thai's hate to lose face and surely the Reds backing down will be a very big loss of face?? After the worldwide media attention and the unfortunate deaths and injuries I only hope it ends for the whole of Thailand..

It is very very far from being over.

1. Even if the Reds accept the time frame, they now want immunity from prosecution and terrorism charges

2. While reasonably leaders may agree, you still have rogue army specialist who is running around and trying to blow up the country

3. There is a new case of anti-monarchy pending which also involves high profile politicians

4. Democrat Party dissolution case has gone to court

5. Should current government win the elections, rest assured Reds, Thaksin and his mates will start again and claim corruption etc etc

6. Should opposition take the elections, PAD will hit the streets with same claims.

7. Police failed to do its job, furthermore a number of high ranked police took Red sides and were involved in bomb planning and weapons smuggling.

8. Army showed how really weak it actually is.

 

The list goes on. While it may settle for a while in terms of demonstrations, i do not think it is over in political sense and i would even go further by saying there will be much more bombs going off around the country.

i just hope it defuses the current standoff .. at least for a while, major bloodshed avoided, shops and hotels reopened, travel advisories lifted .. back to business as usual or as near as possible!

It's a step in the right direction at least they now seem to recognise there must be a political solution the question is will the reds go for it somehow I doubt it.

 

At the moment it's all talk with no guarantee except that "he will hold the next election on November 14 if if his roadmap to solve the political problems is not interrupted" Look at it from the Red Shirts point of view for a moment to see what is really being offered.

 

 

2) The government will carry out national reform to do away with injustice in the economic and political structures.

As part of the process, the government will provide good social welfare, education, health etc, as well as other things to people suffering from other

plights.

 

This is something that had already been started by the Thaksin government that was elected by the Red Shirts and was kicked out by the elite ruling

classes/military/yellow shirts.and nothing they couldn't continue themselves if they were elected.

 

3) The government will ensure that the media will function as a constructive tool.

 

This government has closed down the 2 TV stations 1000 local radio stations and dozens of websites that were either run or symathetic to the red shirts

yet the government and yellow shirt media is still functioning so what exactly does "will function as a constructive tool" mean. I would have thought that

is exactly what is happening now constructive in the sense that only the governments and yellow shirts side is being heard, don't forget this government

was not elected it was put there by the military, courts, and yellow shirts which is what the red shirts are demonstrating about in the first place.

 

4) The government will set up an independent committee to investigate the deaths and injuries in clashes between troops, police and protesters on April 10, at

Silom and on Vibhavadi Road.

 

This is something the red shirts have asked for so I cant see them opposing it provided it is truly independent and transparent.

 

5) The government will take actions to study the public feelings of injustice regarding to political system, especially after what happened over last few

years, and try to solve the problems.

 

Action should have been taken years ago it was in the present government interest not to, for want of a better phrase the "elite ruling class" have had it

all their own way and seem to think they have a right to rule despite what may be returned by the ballot box so "taking actions to study the public

feelings of injustice" means nothing.

 

My own feelings are that while it may appear to be reasonable to most people and the outside world the red shirts will reject it. What they want is Abhsit out and an elected Prime Minister and Government, they do not want to wait six months and in the meantime allow Abhisit and the present government time to either pass new laws of change the constitution to their advantage.

 

Abhisit needs to resign the sooner the better while he is still in power the red shirts will not agree to any of his proposals they see him rightly or wrongly as being responsible for the deaths and injuries that have occurred as well as not being entitled to be Prime Minister.

 

Any new elections need to be independently monitored to stop allegations of electoral fraud i.e. vote buying and all party's to agree to accept the result whatever it may be.

 

Either new laws need to be passed or the constitution changed to stop the military interfering in politics in future.

 

There has to be a compromise somewhere down the line or it will end in tears for everybody the trouble is neither side want to give much at all.

 

My hope is that a non violent or confrontational solution can be worked out and sooner rather than later.

 

Al.

Edited May 17, 201016 yr by Shuggy
Refrence to King Removed

Another arcticle form The Nation

 

By TULSATHIT TAPTIM

The Nation

Published on May 4, 2010

 

Last chance for peace

 

PM urges reds to accept his offer to hold election on Nov 14 to avoid more bloodshed; red shirts to respond to govt's road map today and decide on future of Ratchaprasong protest

 

Is the light at the end of the tunnel that of a train coming our way? The answer depends on how the red shirts, who have been tired, dispirited and discredited, respond today to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's unexpected offer to hold a general election on November 14.

 

Whether the 30-minute national address last night is a game-changing moment will be known soon. As of now, the ball is squarely in the red shirts' court. The roars of the crowds at the Rajprasong intersection at the end of Abhisit's statements could mean anything, but from day one the protesters have never been the ones making decisions.

 

Optimists say the Rajprasong occupation may even end in a day or two. They see Abhisit's offer as a carrot being dangled before demoralised red leaders who have had their personal well-being threatened by possibly serious legal action and their image smeared by the Chulalongkorn Hospital invasion, arms seizures, as well as alleged links with armed militants.

 

The real "stick" is yet to come. On Sunday, an emergency Cabinet meeting was called to approve the possibility of an armed crackdown, which would almost surely be accompanied by terrorism charges against key leaders, who already face lesser accusations of violating the state of emergency law.

 

It was thus a good psychological moment for Abhisit to lay down his five-point "road map" on the table. "This is your graceful exit," was his unspoken message. Take it, or you will see armoured vehicles moving in through the other door.

 

Now, it's a matter of whether common sense prevails among the red shirts. They poured into Bangkok on March 12 knowing that the political calendar at that time tentatively set the general election for late next year. Abhisit virtually told the movement to think about it, now that he had agreed to reduce the waiting period by half.

 

The prime minister was almost back to his brimming-with-confidence self yesterday. The road map, he said, was a result of comprehensive consultations with virtually everyone who mattered. It calls for joint national efforts to rebuild political and economic systems to address legitimate problems of the poor, reinforce the bonds between Thais and the monarchy and make sure that the news media are a constructive tool for society in an age of fast-evolving technology.

 

An independent investigation will be launched into recent violent incidents that have deepened the national divide.

 

"This is what I think can really solve your problems along with the national problems," said Abhisit, seeking to communicate directly with the red shirts, at the end of his address. However, he vowed to go ahead without their cooperation, although that would mean the November 14 election date could be postponed. In a firm, yet pleading tone, he urged them to accept the road map so the whole nation can happily celebrate Coronation Day tomorrow together.

 

Red leaders Jatuporn Promphan and Nuttawut Saikua suggested the movement would give an answer as early as today. They did not comment on the content of the PM's road map, but, knowing the red shirts, the absence of criticism should encourage Abhisit.

 

With increased public pressure in the wake of the Chulalongkorn Hospital incident and greater likelihood of a crackdown, red-shirt leaders themselves had appeared to be preparing more generous offers for the government in exchange for them being treated as political offenders rather than slapped with terrorism- or national security-related crimes.

 

Before Abhisit's announcement, Nuttawut insisted the red shirts had never shut the door on further talks. The government should make an offer and the red shirt leaders would consider it, he stated. "The government should say how many months it wants," he said.

 

It did sound like the red shirts were waiting for a way out. Public pressure has combined with daily fears for a crackdown, not to mention the harsh environment - extreme heat, the smell as well as the fact that it was getting harder every day to mobilise people to join their rally.

 

An estimated 6,000 red shirts gathered at the protest site during the day and some 8,000 at night, far fewer than when the protest began. Many are women and children, raising concern on both sides about their safety.

 

A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PEACE HAD BEEN OPENED BEFORE APRIL 10 BUT WAS IGNORED WITH A DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCE. NOW, IT HAS BEEN REOPENED AGAIN AND WHERE THE NATION IS HEADED IS ENTIRELY UP TO THE RED SHIRTSTULSATHIT TAPTIM

 

The Nation

 

Is the light at the end of the tunnel that of a train coming our way? The answer depends on how the red shirts, who have been tired, dispirited and discredited, respond today to Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's unexpected offer to hold a general election on November 14 this year.

 

Whether the 30-minute national address last night is a game-changing moment will be known soon. As of now, the ball is squarely in the red shirts' court. The roars of the crowds at the Rajprasong intersection at the end of Abhisit's statements could mean anything, but from day one the protesters have never been the ones making decisions.

 

Optimists say the Rajprasong occupation may even end in a day or two. They see Abhisit's offer as a carrot being dangled before demoralised red leaders who have had their personal well-being threatened by possibly serious legal action and their image smeared by the Chulalongkorn Hospital invasion, arms seizures, as well as alleged links with armed militants.

 

The real "stick" is yet to come. On Sunday, an emergency Cabinet meeting was called to approve the possibility of an armed crackdown, which would almost surely be accompanied by terrorism charges against key leaders, who already face lesser accusations of violating the state of emergency law.

 

It was thus a good psychological moment for Abhisit to lay down his five-point "road map" on the table. "This is your graceful exit," was his unspoken message. Take it, or you will see armoured vehicles moving in through the other door.

 

Now, it's a matter of whether common sense prevails among the red shirts. They poured into Bangkok on March 12 knowing that the political calendar at that time tentatively set the general election for late next year. Abhisit virtually told the movement to think about it, now that he had agreed to reduce the waiting period by half.

 

The prime minister was almost back to his brimming-with-confidence self yesterday. The road map, he said, was a result of comprehensive consultations with virtually everyone who mattered. It calls for joint national efforts to rebuild political and economic systems to address legitimate problems of the poor, reinforce the bonds between Thais and the monarchy and make sure that the news media are a constructive tool for society in an age of fast-evolving technology.

 

An independent investigation will be launched into recent violent incidents that have deepened the national divide.

 

"This is what I think can really solve your problems along with the national problems," said Abhisit, seeking to communicate directly with the red shirts, at the end of his address. However, he vowed to go ahead without their cooperation, although that would mean the November 14 election date could be postponed. In a firm, yet pleading tone, he urged them to accept the road map so the whole nation can happily celebrate Coronation Day tomorrow together.

 

Red leaders Jatuporn Promphan and Nuttawut Saikua suggested the movement would give an answer as early as today. They did not comment on the content of the PM's road map, but, knowing the red shirts, the absence of criticism should encourage Abhisit.

 

With increased public pressure in the wake of the Chulalongkorn Hospital incident and greater likelihood of a crackdown, red-shirt leaders themselves had appeared to be preparing more generous offers for the government in exchange for them being treated as political offenders rather than slapped with terrorism- or national security-related crimes.

 

Before Abhisit's announcement, Nuttawut insisted the red shirts had never shut the door on further talks. The government should make an offer and the red shirt leaders would consider it, he stated. "The government should say how many months it wants," he said.

 

It did sound like the red shirts were waiting for a way out. Public pressure has combined with daily fears for a crackdown, not to mention the harsh environment - extreme heat, the smell as well as the fact that it was getting harder every day to mobilise people to join their rally.

 

An estimated 6,000 red shirts gathered at the protest site during the day and some 8,000 at night, far fewer than when the protest began. Many are women and children, raising concern on both sides about their safety.

 

A window of opportunity for peace had been opened before April 10 but was ignored with a disastrous consequence. Now, it has been reopened again and where the nation is headed is entirely up to the red shirts.

There are several possible outcomes to an election.

 

1. No overall majority to either side, red or yellow. Result; much as we are now, with a coalition Gov't and possibly the same leader;

 

result, back to Siam Square, square one.

 

2. A small red majority but not enough to overturn the ruling coalition. Result: much as we are now, back to square one.

 

3. A small yellow majority but not enough to overule the new coalition of red and minority/independents. Result; back to square one.

 

4. An overall yellow majority. Result; Reds take to the streets to protest the result; end result, back to square one.

 

5. An overall red majority. Result; yellows take to the streets to protest the result; end result, back to square one.

 

The political map in Thailand is such that, with the current system of voting, there is very unlikely to be an overall winner in any election for

 

the foreseeble future. I would suggest that a 'first past the post' system be adopted, as in the UK, where there is generally an outright winner,

 

particularly if there are just two main parties in contention. I admit that the UK election to be held on Thursday might well result in an

 

unworkable, minority Gov't, but I somehow doubt that will happen. Until something radical is done here in Thailand, I fear the situation will drag

 

on, and on, and on, and on.....

So will the election be the end of problems or the basis for a whole new set of problems? Guesses?

I hope so, lets just hope the yellows don't start trying to screw things up.