Tourism not expected to return to normal till 2026 bloomerg

[poseidon5566]

It could take another five years before tourism revives fully in Thailand -- an ominous sign for one of the most travel-dependent economies in the world.

 

 

 

 

The sector, which contributed about one-fifth of Thailand’s economy before the pandemic, isn’t expected to return to normal until 2026, the National Economic and Social Development Council said Monday, citing the Tourism Authority of Thailand. The delayed return -- which some analysts had expected within two years -- will impact more than seven million workers, some of whom may need to find jobs in other fields, the council said.

 

 

Tourism Reliance

Thailand has grown more reliant on foreign visitors in the past decade

Sources: Ministry of Tourism & Sports, National Economic and Social Development Council

 

 

 

 

Thailand welcomed nearly 40 million visitors in 2019 -- the last year before the pandemic -- generating $60 billion in revenue. The Southeast Asian nation, which closed its borders to most foreign visitors in March 2020, is trying to gradually reopen some destinations to vaccinated visitors with the economy struggling to gain traction.

 

THAILAND INSIGHT: 2021 Outlook Cut as Virus Yet to Crest – Data

 

The economy has contracted for five straight quarters, a trend that’s likely to continue in the April-June period as the country battles its worst Covid-19 outbreak yet. The resort island of Phuket is set to be the first place to reopen in July, followed by 10 other destinations in October. But the government expects only 500,000 visitors this year, a fraction of the 6.7 million who came in 2020 -- almost all in the first three months.

 

 

 

The rate of unemployment in Thailand has “increased drastically,” with the jobless tally reaching 758,000, or 1.96%, in the first quarter of 2021, according to the council. That’s the highest rate since the first quarter of 2009, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The current wave of infections to trigger more job cuts and further reduce working hours, the council said, adding that there will be fewer openings for new graduates.

“The economy has not yet recovered to pre-Covid-19 levels, and the labor market could be hit even harder. This will have an impact on labor income and cause households to have more liquidity issues,” the council said, adding that the ratio of household debt to gross domestic product will remain high in 2021. Household debt was valued at 14.02 trillion baht in the fourth quarter of 2020, equivalent to nearly 90% of GDP.

READ MORE ON THAILAND’S TOURISM INDUSTRY
Thailand to Reopen Phuket to Vaccinated Tourists From July
Phuket Ready for Foreign Tourism in July Despite Thai Covid Wave
Thailand Eyes More Vaccines as Phuket Reopen Hinges on Shots

— With assistance by Lee J Miller

(Updates with more details from fifth paragraph.)

 

 

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Clearly not good news but useful 

 

 

[LASportsNut]

I think Pattaya will be the first to bounce back.

There are a few million horny guys rubbing themselves raw back home.

[Greg_B]

1 hour ago, LASportsNut said:

I think Pattaya will be the first to bounce back.

There are a few million horny guys rubbing themselves raw back home.

I'd think it's going to take a couple of seasons to get back to anywhere close to 2019

[whitespider - RIP]

As the article is from Bloomberg I would guess its a "big picture" assumption i.e. taking into account things like flight availability, ease of travel from host countries etc etc.

I also think theres a big difference between

Getting back....... and

Getting back "to normal"

Assuming they mean the same as pre 2020 by "normal"

Its a huge picture and impossible to generalise.

[themehta]

 Post Covid Travel Protocols , New Local Rules, Restrictions and personal capacity ( Health & wealth wise) , will derive New Normal. 

Many people who are healthy , may not plan international tours due to financial loss due to Covid.

Many people who are wealthy, may not plan international tours due to Age / health restrictions.

As of now, each country is struggling to keep their population safe from covid at the risk of Travel / hospitality Industry . Thailand will also follow it by restricting International Arrivals. Before opening border phasewise, Thailand will implement new rules and regulations for Airlines, hotels, Cabs, Bars and restaurants to control COVID . We may witness frequent mini lockdown/ closures in future and permanent closures of many Travels & hospitality related small businesses.

Edited May 25, 2021 by themehta

[Pooliekev]

As the article is from Bloomberg I dismissed it without further consideration.

Call me picky, but the last time they were right about anything was never.

[poseidon5566]

I think it looks accurate given current trajectory and the head of ITA said 2025 for airline industry to return to normal. the developing world are not able to get vaccines and manufacturing is not where it needs to be for it to meet that demand plus pfizer and moderna are selling there's at a price to expensive for developing country's like Thailand to afford on mass (and they should make profit). and that's without all the headache of testing and vaccination certificates which do not exist yet. If I was running a tourist business I would be considering my position carefully with this news