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My crypto journey so far

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how122255
42 minutes ago, supergeil said:

Imagine there are only two players, they are both right 50% of the time, and they both use your “correct” risk and money management strategy. You are saying they would both trade profitable? I hope you see the error in this thinking.

Why all this 'theoretical'  thinking ?  If I bought years ago at $5 a coin and the sold for $10 and the next guy sold for $20  ---on and on....no one is losing money.  Everyone made money. Not a zero sum game.  Please don't tell me at some point it will go down and that 1 person will lose ...Who cares ?  Everyone knows there are risks and as explained nicely above,  you keep your risk and positions small so when you hit a loser it does NOT wipe you out...I have also traded like the example above---sometimes several times in one day. I have made money  and also I have had fun.  Just like in the casino but I don't need to leave my house. Yes,  I have had loses on some trades but I don't expect to win every hand when I play blackjack. 

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kramer_456
42 minutes ago, supergeil said:

Imagine there are only two players, they are both right 50% of the time, and they both use your “correct” risk and money management strategy. You are saying they would both trade profitable? I hope you see the error in this thinking.

Why would I imgaine that? There aren't only two players. There never has been and there never will be in crypto or currency markets. There's millions of players all trading for different reasons in different ways. I'm not interested in the theory of why it might not work. I'm interested in what actually works to make real money trading week in week out on existing markets.

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supergeil
12 minutes ago, kramer_456 said:

Why would I imgaine that? There aren't only two players. There never has been and there never will be in crypto or currency markets. There's millions of players all trading for different reasons in different ways. I'm not interested in the theory of why it might not work. I'm interested in what actually works to make real money trading week in week out on existing markets.

You claimed that you could trade profitable even if you were only right 50% of the time. I gave an example with only two people because that should make it easy for you to understand why it wouldn’t work, but it is not any different with a million people: If you are only right 50% of the time in a zero sum game you are not making any money!

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how122255
1 minute ago, supergeil said:

You claimed that you could trade profitable even if you were only right 50% of the time. I gave an example with only two people because that should make it easy for you to understand why it wouldn’t work, but it is not any different with a million people: If you are only right 50% of the time in a zero sum game you are not making any money!

As many people play the hourly/daily/weekly  ups and downs,  it is certainly possible for everyone to make money.  In reality,  who cares if the 'other' guy makes or loses.  This is NOT a charity event. 

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kramer_456
1 minute ago, supergeil said:

You claimed that you could trade profitable even if you were only right 50% of the time. I gave an example with only two people because that should make it easy for you to understand why it wouldn’t work, but it is not any different with a million people: If you are only right 50% of the time in a zero sum game you are not making any money!

Haha you are pretty funny. :) You've never traded then obviously? This sort of risk managment is like trading 101. You would probably love it as its very theory based. :)

Set maximum risk of 1% of my account on a trade and set the SL and position size accordingly. Then only take trades where the anticipated risk to reward is at least 1:3. So profitable trades should be 3% or more, up to even 10% if its a really good one. But lets say on avg its 3%. So my losses are always 1% but my wins on avg are 3%. If I take 10 trades with 5 losses and 5 wins then my overall profit from being 50% right is 10% up. It's pretty simple and it works really well if you stick to it.

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Ludhamlad
6 minutes ago, supergeil said:

You claimed that you could trade profitable even if you were only right 50% of the time. I gave an example with only two people because that should make it easy for you to understand why it wouldn’t work, but it is not any different with a million people: If you are only right 50% of the time in a zero sum game you are not making any money!

I just don't get this term 'zero sum game' a trader places a trade and it either does what he expects or goes against him and hits a stop loss.  Successful traders have many losing trades but the difference between them and a novice trader is they will know it's gone wrong early and get out where the inexperienced guy will hold it in the hope of it turning around.  The big trader that Kramer is talking about say making $50,000 on a trade on the other side of that are maybe 50 guys losing $1000 so yea more losers than winners.

I am in the Telegram group of a very large trader ($600 a point on the Dow) full size done incrementally.  He also teaches a lot and genuinely cares about people and wants to help them.  He sometimes recommends a firm to start trading with and the person will get a gift for opening a new account, when he asked one firm what he was going to get for every new account he put their way they said you can have 50% of everything they lose..he was gobsmacked at how unethical this was and told them where to shove it as that's not how he operates....their response was 'well they are going to lose anyway'

You probably are right that most people will lose but Kramer seems to be doing things the right way so good luck to him and hope he manages to live off his winnings.

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how122255
11 hours ago, taylor1975 said:

Why scrub the contracts bit. If you made a tidy sum, then great. But if you made a 100 bucks, ok not so special. 

Even if he only made $100,  if you do that several times a week you have some decent extra money to throw around on whatever you like or whoever...You don't need to make a 'home-run'  on every trade.  Slow and steady works nicely too. 

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how122255

Off topic:  Is anyone using 'NEXO'.  They pay 8% for deposits on stable coins and others.  Paid daily.  They have been paying 8%  for a while now. I have never read anything bad about them. 

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ZRHuser

A stop loss is no guaranty that you can sell for the price you set. It is just the price that will give the sell order. Now with a very volatile thing like bit coin, you may sell for much less then you wanted. Then there is that naughty thing of stop loss fishing. The big guys in this game can produce a mini rash for a very short time and harvest stop loss sales. You sold your coins for a bad price and the price is up to the level it was before. It is a jungle out there and your savety net may rip. 

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sabato
4 hours ago, kramer_456 said:

So with a SL of $20k USD max loss then if it was a 2% risk trade that would make his trading account around $1m USD. This is not his net worth though as he takes all profits out and keeps the account the same size.

I really don't care if its a zero sum game or who's trading or why they are trading. But there's definitely a lot of people buying and selling. I only care about making sure that I am trading consistently and profitably. With correct risk and money management you can trade profitably if your are only right 50% of the time.

Do you realize how many times you get stopped out for a $20k loss, before you make that $45k profit (let alone a $104k profit)? You say you could show another 30 of these profitable trades. Ask him how many times he got stopped out for that $20k risk loss. It was more than 30, I can give you the tip.

You should care if it's a zero sum game. As then you have to ask yourself, what makes me better than every other trader, that I can turn a tidy profit consistently? Either you think all the other traders with serious money, are content to whittle their money away. Or is it plausible, that they're all as concerned about trading consistently and profitably as you are? I'd say that's more than plausible. I'd take it even further, and assume they're guns at trading (as natural selection means those with the best consistently profitable strategies, assuming such a thing exists, are the ones left while the rest go bankrupt). What sets your trading plan apart?

There have got to be easier ways to turn profits than currency trading. I've encountered several freelancers now in Pattaya, who are employed as currency traders. I have no idea how that happens, who is funding it. No offense intended to the girls, not suggesting I could be a more profitable currency trader, it's more that I can't imagine any currency trader manually executing trades to be consistently profitable. If you were leaning on HFT (front running) and deep learning algorithms, maybe. Or if you were involved in providing hedging services. I had to wonder if it was a foreign financial services firm who has a Thai employee quota, and bringing some currency traders on board is just a cost effective way to create a front for a business.

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sabato

I knew of someone who had a serious crack at being a currency trader. Spent the better part of 2-3 years of his life on it, full time most of his waking hours absorbing everything he could, huge set up of monitors, always complaining about connection speed holding him back etc (needed a direct line to the exchange to make the real money). This guy genuinely believed he had unlocked the Secrets of currency trading, and could see all the patterns unfolding.. then inexplicably all the 'rules' started changing on him. He said the market had changed, he didn't know why, but all the knowledge he had accrued no longer applied,. Things were fundamentally different now. He decided to exit currency trading after that. I suppose that's one psychologically satisfying way to exit, you had it nailed - but then the world went and changed on you.

Anyway just be careful. Some people are utterly convinced homeopathy and astrology works, there are legit blind spots in human psychology. I care more about identifying the why of how it works. Do I have a blind spot as well? I most certifiably do, I cannot trust my instincts, which is exactly why I need to see the evidence of why it works, to eliminate any subjective tilt. Or a sufficiently large double blind study that establishes the effects are not from random chance and selection bias.

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kramer_456
21 minutes ago, sabato said:

Do you realize how many times you get stopped out for a $20k loss, before you make that $45k profit (let alone a $104k profit)? You say you could show another 30 of these profitable trades. Ask him how many times he got stopped out for that $20k risk loss. It was more than 30, I can give you the tip.

You should care if it's a zero sum game. As then you have to ask yourself, what makes me better than every other trader, that I can turn a tidy profit consistently? Either you think all the other traders with serious money, are content to whittle their money away. Or is it plausible, that they're all as concerned about trading consistently and profitably as you are? I'd say that's more than plausible. I'd take it even further, and assume they're guns at trading (as natural selection means those with the best consistently profitable strategies, assuming such a thing exists, are the ones left while the rest go bankrupt). What sets your trading plan apart?

There have got to be easier ways to turn profits than currency trading. I've encountered several freelancers now in Pattaya, who are employed as currency traders. I have no idea how that happens, who is funding it. No offense intended to the girls, not suggesting I could be a more profitable currency trader, it's more that I can't imagine any currency trader manually executing trades to be consistently profitable. If you were leaning on HFT (front running) and deep learning algorithms, maybe. Or if you were involved in providing hedging services. I had to wonder if it was a foreign financial services firm who has a Thai employee quota, and bringing some currency traders on board is just a cost effective way to create a front for a business.

WTF are you talking about? You are just rambling incoherently at this point.

Your right that probably 90% of people who try trading lose at it. That's pretty well known and I've been one of those guys in the past. But there are a lot of reasons for that.

Trading profitably is a skill that can be learned and some people do get good at it.

As far as my mate goes, I do know how many loses he makes as I get to see them as well. And its very few. I'd say his strike rate is somewhere around 10 to 1. He loses very few. But he is also a very experience trader who has been living off it for many years now and has a massive trading account. He knows what he's doing and he only trades when he see a really good setup. So its usually only 5 to 7 per month max. He lives in a Mansion, has several super cars in his garage. Him and his wife and two kids spent about 2 years traveling the world staying in 28 different countries. You don't know me or him so you have no idea what you are talking about. :Oops1:

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kramer_456
9 minutes ago, sabato said:

I knew of someone who had a serious crack at being a currency trader. Spent the better part of 2-3 years of his life on it, full time most of his waking hours absorbing everything he could, huge set up of monitors, always complaining about connection speed holding him back etc (needed a direct line to the exchange to make the real money). This guy genuinely believed he had unlocked the Secrets of currency trading, and could see all the patterns unfolding.. then inexplicably all the 'rules' started changing on him. He said the market had changed, he didn't know why, but all the knowledge he had accrued no longer applied,. Things were fundamentally different now. He decided to exit currency trading after that. I suppose that's one psychologically satisfying way to exit, you had it nailed - but then the world went and changed on you.

Anyway just be careful. Some people are utterly convinced homeopathy and astrology works, there are legit blind spots in human psychology. I care more about identifying the why of how it works. Do I have a blind spot as well? I most certifiably do, I cannot trust my instincts, which is exactly why I need to see the evidence of why it works, to eliminate any subjective tilt. Or a sufficiently large double blind study that establishes the effects are not from random chance and selection bias.

So what. So you knew someone who tried trading and failed. There are millions of people like that in the world. I happen to know a bunch of guys who tried it and are making a killing at it. So I'm getting them to teach me what they do.

Trading is pretty simple. If you start with a $1,000 account and turn it into $10,000 and then turn that $10,000 into $100,000. If you do it through a consistent repeatable risk manged process over a decent period of time (not through taking a few big punts that just happened to pay off) now you can probably consider living off it. Money in your account tells you if its working or not!

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sabato
16 minutes ago, kramer_456 said:

As far as my mate goes, I do know how many loses he makes as I get to see them as well. And its very few. I'd say his strike rate is somewhere around 10 to 1. He loses very few. But he is also a very experience trader who has been living off it for many years now and has a massive trading account. He knows what he's doing and he only trades when he see a really good setup. So its usually only 5 to 7 per month max. He lives in a Mansion, has several super cars in his garage. Him and his wife and two kids spent about 2 years traveling the world staying in 28 different countries. You don't know me or him so you have no idea what you are talking about. :Oops1:

I explicitly talked about the statistical outliers, don't point to them as evidence it works. It's a zero sum game - statistically someone has to make money, it doesn't just vanish into the ether. Unbelievable.

If you think big trading firms wouldn't be on top of this, with whole offices and dedicated hardware for it, you're naive. I'm just pointing out what is logical here. Arbitrage always steps in where easy money is to be found. You don't think a company would capitalize on this if it was so easy? Think rationally.

 

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kramer_456
3 minutes ago, sabato said:

I explicitly talked about the statistical outliers, don't point to them as evidence it works. It's a zero sum game - statistically someone has to make money, it doesn't just vanish into the ether. Unbelievable.

If you think big trading firms wouldn't be on top of this, with whole offices and dedicated hardware for it, you're naive. I'm just pointing out what is logical here. Arbitrage always steps in where easy money is to be found. You don't think a company would capitalize on this if it was so easy? Think rationally.

 

Who said its easy? Its not easy. Its bloody hard!

You guys are obsessed with this zero sum game thing. So long as I'm making money what the fuck do I care?

Big players can never trade the same way as small players. The volumes they move make it a totally different game. But small players can watch for the signs of what the big players/manipulators are doing and profit from it. So in reality its actually the opposite of what you are saying. Strategies that I could use to make $10-20k per month would never work if you were trying to make $1m per month. Espeically in crypto.

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taylor1975
2 hours ago, how122255 said:

Even if he only made $100,  if you do that several times a week you have some decent extra money to throw around on whatever you like or whoever...You don't need to make a 'home-run'  on every trade.  Slow and steady works nicely too. 

I get that, if you’ve got time and the inclination, why not. I can do that amount in 30-45 mins work, so i’m not motivated by that risk/return/effort. 

I’m interested in the big bets, but appreciate you have to work up to them ...assuming it all goes well. Ftse is up 0.92% as i type. Thats a great day lol. Back down on monday, no doubt :rolleyes: 

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sabato
7 minutes ago, kramer_456 said:

Big players can never trade the same way as small players. The volumes they move make it a totally different game. But small players can watch for the signs of what the big players/manipulators are doing and profit from it. So in reality its actually the opposite of what you are saying. Strategies that I could use to make $10-20k per month would never work if you were trying to make $1m per month. Espeically in crypto.

You seem to be saying that between you and your friends, and all the other successful traders you know, there's actually a lot of profit to be made, well beyond $10-$20k/month. Is there some reason a big player can't have a single trader take on the role of multiple small players, to vacuum up these profits? Big players can trade as small players quite easily, there's literally zero barrier to it, and the sums you're talking about, would definitely be of interest to big players. Particularly since they could encode it in an algorithm and leave it do its thing. Unless you're saying it takes a human Touch to divine the market, not something so mundane as objectively identifying patterns. Deep learning has surpassed human ability for image recognition, you should be deeply suspicious of anyone claiming to be able to pick patterns from a structured environment better than a machine.

If your mate takes 5-7 profitable trades per month, does that leave any for you if you're using a similar strategy? If he's not betting more on trades, why not? Why is he incapable of identifying the trades that you would be making, and additionally profiting of those himself?

You obviously see all these as silly questions, but cumulatively all these small coincidences don't add up. 

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kramer_456
5 minutes ago, sabato said:

You seem to be saying that between you and your friends, and all the other successful traders you know, there's actually a lot of profit to be made, well beyond $10-$20k/month. Is there some reason a big player can't have a single trader take on the role of multiple small players, to vacuum up these profits? Big players can trade as small players quite easily, there's literally zero barrier to it, and the sums you're talking about, would definitely be of interest to big players. Particularly since they could encode it in an algorithm and leave it do its thing. Unless you're saying it takes a human Touch to divine the market, not something so mundane as objectively identifying patterns. Deep learning has surpassed human ability for image recognition, you should be deeply suspicious of anyone claiming to be able to pick patterns from a structured environment better than a machine.

If your mate takes 5-7 profitable trades per month, does that leave any for you if you're using a similar strategy? If he's not betting more on trades, why not? Why is he incapable of identifying the trades that you would be making, and additionally profiting of those himself?

You obviously see all these as silly questions, but cumulatively all these small coincidences don't add up. 

Your right, very silly questions and statements. You just don't get it all, that is patently obvious. The line I put in bold above is a beyond stupid thing to say if you knew the first thing about any markets. But I'm done talking about this anymore. I'm out! Believe whatever you want.

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taylor1975

I thought traders in forex and markets, used background data to support their trades ...weather, economic, political etc. This was a skill that separated you from your peers.

Seems tricky to do that with crypto? ...so you are just left with charting ‘patterns’? I was under the impression you can get software to analyse this for you.

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kramer_456
9 minutes ago, taylor1975 said:

I thought traders in forex and markets, used background data to support their trades ...weather, economic, political etc. This was a skill that separated you from your peers.

Seems tricky to do that with crypto? ...so you are just left with charting ‘patterns’? I was under the impression you can get software to analyse this for you.

Some do I guess, lots don't. Everyone is different. There are lots of people in Crypto who think they are analyising fundmentals and trading accordingly.

There are more trading systems, styles of trading, algorithms, trading bots, chart patterns, software systems and indicators than you can poke a stick at. Every trader uses different things.

At the end of the day trading is 90% psychological. You have to work out a system that works for you. The 3 full time traders I'm working with all trade very differently from each other. The main guy I already showed is more of a breakout trader, the other guy is a longer term swing trader and the 3rd one is more of a short term scalper. I'm picking up different things from each of them and working out a strategy that works best for me and my personality. It doesn't matter what you use so long as it works for you and you are consistently profitable.

If you can make 10% a month on a $10k account consistently then there is no reason why you can't do it on a $100k or $1m account. Although a $1m account will start to run into some scale issues. Which is why the main guy trades the way he does.

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sabato
1 hour ago, kramer_456 said:

You just don't get it all, that is patently obvious. The line I put in bold above is a beyond stupid thing to say if you knew the first thing about any markets. But I'm done talking about this anymore. I'm out!

HFT algorithms will exploit any opportunity to consistently generate profits, at all scales, large and small. They don't have settings like 'only make huge super profitable trades', they take every profitable trade opportunity they can. They trade parcels worth a few dollars, and you're suggesting they don't bother with smaller profit opportunities?

People can and do make money from the markets, and outperform small and big hedge funds. The fallacy is believing that because you purchased Apple shares at the right time, that you're the smartest guy in the room, or believing your success was only possible because you're small and agile.

Edited by sabato

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taylor1975

On a slightly deep note, one of my aspirations is to maintain a stress free life ...so i think trading of any form is not for me lol

Best of luck to those who do it.

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hatguy

End of year dip means I'm out until late Dec. If it goes south of $6000 before then I'm buying another $1000 worth. If it does. Not when. Lol

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supergeil
On 06/12/2019 at 10:12, kramer_456 said:

Set maximum risk of 1% of my account on a trade and set the SL and position size accordingly. Then only take trades where the anticipated risk to reward is at least 1:3. So profitable trades should be 3% or more, up to even 10% if its a really good one. But lets say on avg its 3%. So my losses are always 1% but my wins on avg are 3%. If I take 10 trades with 5 losses and 5 wins then my overall profit from being 50% right is 10% up. It's pretty simple and it works really well if you stick to it.

OK, so your bet is that it goes up (or down) 3% before it moves more than 1% in the opposite direction?

I agree with you that with such a bet you make money even if you are only right 50% of the time.

The problem of course is that the probability of such bet going in your favor is less than 50% therefore it would not result in any profit if you were betting/trading by simply flipping a coin (what I took by your original statement of only being right 50% of the time, but I understand this wasn’t actually what you said).

I am curious, if you don’t mind sharing, what is your success rate? And what is your decision process for when to place a trade?

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kramer_456
2 hours ago, supergeil said:

OK, so your bet is that it goes up (or down) 3% before it moves more than 1% in the opposite direction?

I agree with you that with such a bet you make money even if you are only right 50% of the time.

The problem of course is that the probability of such bet going in your favor is less than 50% therefore it would not result in any profit if you were betting/trading by simply flipping a coin (what I took by your original statement of only being right 50% of the time, but I understand this wasn’t actually what you said).

I am curious, if you don’t mind sharing, what is your success rate? And what is your decision process for when to place a trade?

Yes but this is not betting, it trading. There is a lot you can do to make your trade less of a bet. This is where the Psychology comes into it. You can't be 100% right, but if you are following good technical analysis you can minimise your chance of being wrong. The stop loss (SL) is set to the place where it becomes obvious that the trade is invalidated. A good trade is one that has a good risk to return ratio. In other words the SL, that invalidates the trade is less than 1/3 of the potential profit if you are right. I'm sure you know that a good card counter can make his odds pretty good at Black Jack. Especially if he employs good money management as well. That's why Casinos ban good card counters. Trading is not so different.

You won't always get the 30% and sometimes you will have to cut the trade short for less profit if the market structure changes. Sometimes though you'll get a 100% return in a matter of hours. But generally its better to set the trade and forget and let it play out.

In the last 7 weeks I've done 33 trades, 22 profit and 11 losses. Overall return, my whole account is up 21.32%. However one of my losses was 3.79%. I broke all my trade plan rules. I doubled up instead of letting the SL get hit (because I was overconfident that I knew where it was going). Then it kept going against me and I moved my SL further hoping it would come back but it didn't so I had to take a much bigger loss than I should have. This is the Psychology of trading. Its much harder to take a loss than people think. We want to be right more than anything and that is not a good idea for trading. Taking the SL if it happens is essential to proper trading. It was a learning experience. Which I won't repeat.

Decison process is based on technical analysis. Support, resistance, trend, supply zones, price action and candle stick patterns, Fibonacci, Elliot waves, etc etc. 

Edited by kramer_456

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